基本面偏弱，上方承压：有色金属周报-工业硅&多晶硅-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are weak, with prices facing upward pressure. For industrial silicon, supply is contracting and costs are rising, providing some support for prices, but weak demand restricts upward movement. For polysilicon, there is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and prices are under pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract on November 21, 2025, was 8,960 yuan/ton, down 0.67% from November 14. Spot prices of different grades in various regions showed minor fluctuations, with some prices rising slightly [10]. - Polysilicon and Related Product Prices: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract on November 21, 2025, was 53,360 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from November 14. The prices of N - type polysilicon materials remained stable, while the prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components decreased [10]. - Raw Material Prices: Silica prices remained stable due to downstream rigid - demand procurement. Electricity prices in the southwest region increased during the flat - dry season. Electrode prices remained stable due to weak supply and demand. Silicon coal prices increased due to cost drivers, while petroleum coke prices remained stable [16][22][27][33]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: In November, industrial silicon supply is expected to fall below 400,000 tons, a decrease of about 12%, in line with the same period in previous years. The opening of furnaces in the southwest region decreased, while the output in the northwest region was stable with a slight increase [4]. - Demand: In the polysilicon industry, production is expected to decline. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to support prices, with a consensus on stepped production cuts, resulting in a decrease in demand for industrial silicon. The silicon - aluminum alloy industry has no production increase or decrease plans, and its operation is stable [4]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase. In November, due to maintenance and production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan and some increases in Inner Mongolia, the total production is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons [4]. - Demand: The front - end installation rush in the first half of the year overdrafted some demand in the second half. Domestic bidding projects decreased, and overseas demand declined, putting pressure on the component side. If domestic demand remains weak, component production cuts may increase. Battery cell inventories are accumulating, and prices are generally falling. Silicon wafer inventories are also increasing, and production in November is expected to decline [4]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Industrial Silicon: Except for some silicon enterprises in the southwest that have reduced production, most manufacturers are in normal production. Due to relatively low prices, silicon enterprises are less willing to sell, and inventories are accumulating. As of November 20, the total industrial silicon social inventory (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 548,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 tons [4][131]. - Polysilicon: As of November 20, the total polysilicon inventory was 271,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.72 GW. As of November 21, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 7,500 lots [4]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Industrial Silicon: Driven by the sentiment of the organic silicon industry, industrial silicon prices briefly rose last week. Fundamentally, supply contraction and cost increases provide some support for silicon prices, but weak demand restricts upward movement. It is expected that silicon prices will remain range - bound in the short term, with an operating range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon: There is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". Downstream prices are being lowered due to poor demand and inventory pressure. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, and polysilicon prices are under pressure. Attention should be paid to protecting the profits of previous long positions [4].