Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-25 09:41Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The short - term trend of the UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1630 - 1670 yuan/ton. The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly in the short term, and export demand will gradually increase with the new quota. The urea enterprise inventory may continue to decline [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 234,315 lots, an increase of 2000 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 26,299. The exchange warehouse receipts are 7302, a decrease of 268 [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei and Henan are 1650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Jiangsu is 1630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong is 1640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Anhui is 1640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main contract basis is 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton. The FOB Baltic price is 362.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB China main port price is 400 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 100,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons, a 21.95% increase; the enterprise inventory is 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons, a 3.13% decrease. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.91%, a decrease of 0.17%; the daily output is 202,900 tons, an increase of 6200 tons. The urea export volume is 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons. The monthly output is 5.87127 million tons, an increase of 132,600 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 34.61%, an increase of 4.29%; the melamine operating rate is 62.2%, an increase of 4.72%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 3.6287 million tons, a decrease of 1.0331 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,000 tons, an increase of 2800 tons [2] Industry News - As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 3.13% week - on - week. The urea price fluctuated upward, and the demand for northeast reserves increased significantly. As of November 20, the port inventory increased by 21.95% week - on - week, with slow shipments. The domestic urea output increased due to the resumption of previously - overhauled devices. The production of urea enterprises increased by 3.16% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [2] Suggestion - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]