Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-25 09:41Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core View - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a situation of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly weakened demand affected by the off - season. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of converging supply and slightly reduced demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum was 21,465 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 2,727 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,705 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2] - The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai aluminum was - 80 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of alumina was - 63 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy was - 130 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] - The position of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 16,320 hands to 271,763 hands; the position of the main contract of alumina increased by 1,416 hands to 390,129 hands; the position of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 764 hands to 10,428 hands [2] - LME aluminum's three - month quotation was 2,813 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,050 tons to 545,950 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum increased by 8,782 hands to 17,434 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.63, up 0.02 [2] Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,440 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 21,330 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 32.80 US dollars/ton, down 1.93 US dollars [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 645 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was 43 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the current month was 786.50 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the national alumina utilization rate was 86.96%, down 1.31 percentage points; the national alumina demand (electrolytic aluminum part) in the current month was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 16,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments increased by 2,945.61 tons to 158,360.01 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments decreased by 36.08 tons to 32.46 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina in the current month was 18.00 million tons, down 7.00 million tons; the import volume of alumina in the current month was 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum increased by 4,462 tons to 248,261.37 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum decreased by 4,396.36 tons to 24,573.56 tons; the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.20 million tons, and the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12 percentage points [2] - The production of aluminum products was 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.00 million tons, down 2.00 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 million tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2] - The production of aluminum alloy was 168.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of automobiles was 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.49%, down 0.58 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 10.39%, unchanged [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 9.81%, down 0.0045 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.52, up 0.099 [2] Industry News - Fed Governor Waller advocates a rate cut in December; San Francisco Fed President Daly supports a rate cut next month [2] - As of the end of October, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%, including solar power and wind power with significant growth [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the creation of national emerging industry development demonstration bases [2] - In the first three quarters of this year, China's full - industry foreign direct investment was 923.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [2] - The central bank will conduct a 1 - trillion - yuan MLF operation on November 25, with a net MLF investment of 100 billion yuan this month [2]