螺纹价格区间预测

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall finished steel products are supported by raw material costs at the bottom but driven by inventory at the top. It is expected that the finished steel products will fluctuate within a range. The operating range of rebar may be between 2900 - 3200, and that of hot-rolled coils between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed of steel products and downstream consumption. The risk lies in the potential negative feedback risk caused by the decline in the profitability rate of steel enterprises [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The 01 contract monthly price range forecast for rebar is 2900 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.25% and a volatility percentile of 14.7%. For hot-rolled coils, it is 3100 - 3500, with a current volatility of 9.34% and a volatility percentile of 3.80% [3]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategy Recommendations 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling steel prices, to prevent inventory - related losses, enterprises can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. For RB2601 and HC2601, the selling ratio is 30%, with recommended entry intervals of 3200 - 3250 and 3350 - 3400 respectively. Selling call options can reduce capital costs, and if steel prices rise, the spot selling price can be locked. For RB2601C3400, the selling ratio is 20%, with a recommended entry interval of 50 - 55 [3]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to orders, they can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. For RB2601 and HC2601, the buying ratio is 30%, with recommended entry intervals of 2950 - 3000 and 3100 - 3150 respectively. Selling put options can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs, and if rebar prices fall, the spot purchase price can be locked. For RB2601P2900, the selling ratio is 20%, with a recommended entry interval of 35 - 45 [3]. 3.3 Market Review - Today, the prices of finished steel products continued to rise slightly, showing a pattern of rising with decreasing positions. Recently, the shortage of medium - grade iron ore resources has led to a tight supply of deliverable resources, making iron ore relatively strong and driving up the prices of finished steel products. However, the upward movement of iron ore is constrained by the decline in hot metal production and high port inventories, which may affect the price increase of finished steel products [3]. 3.4 Core Logic - This week, both the supply and demand of steel increased, and the inventory continued to be slowly destocked. The supply - demand balance is gradually improving. Hot - rolled coils have started to be slowly destocked, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years, with over - seasonal inventory accumulation. The plate end is still in a situation of high inventory and high production, and destocking may need to rely on production cuts. Plate exports remain high, supporting good export demand, but domestic demand is gradually weakening month - on - month. Hot metal production decreased month - on - month this week, and it is expected to continue the slow production - cut trend according to seasonal patterns and profit decline. This week, the profitability rate of steel enterprises continued to decline to 37.66%, and the risk of negative feedback is gradually increasing. In terms of cost, the arrival volume of iron ore last week decreased significantly month - on - month, and the port inventory accumulation slowed down and turned to destocking. However, with the recovery of iron ore shipments to a high level and the decline in hot metal production last week, it is expected that the port inventory of iron ore may turn back to the accumulation trend. Recently, the shortage of medium - grade iron ore resources has led to a tight supply of deliverable resources, making iron ore relatively strong, but it is constrained by hot metal production cuts and high port inventories at the top and supported by the expectation of winter storage replenishment at the bottom, resulting in a range - bound price. The previous negative factors for rebar are gradually being realized and cleared, but there is no obvious increase in downstream demand. Although blast furnace profits are in the red, profits are significantly improving during the slow destocking of steel, and the bottom support for steel prices is strong [4][5]. 3.5 Interpretation of Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.5.1 Bullish Factors - The inventory of iron ore ports continued to accumulate but at a slower pace, and it turned to destocking last week. The high valuation of iron ore has recently declined, and it is supported by the expectation of winter storage replenishment. The supply - demand balance of finished steel products is gradually improving. The decline in coking coal prices has benefited finished steel products, and the profits of finished steel products are slowly recovering [7]. 3.5.2 Bearish Factors - The basis of hot - rolled coils is gradually weakening. The steel market fails to meet expectations during the peak season, the profitability rate of steel mills has declined significantly, and the pressure of negative feedback is gradually increasing. The arrival volume of iron ore has returned to a high level, and the port inventory of iron ore may turn back to the accumulation trend. The plate end is still in a situation of high inventory and high production, with production at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, and there is no driving force on the consumption side. The inventory has accumulated over - seasonally and is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years [7]. 3.6 Price Data 3.6.1 Futures Prices - On November 25, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3106, up 17 from the previous day and 16 from the previous week; the closing price of the rebar 05 contract was 3125, up 7 from the previous day and down 14 from the previous week; the closing price of the rebar 10 contract was 3172, up 5 from the previous day and down 8 from the previous week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3309, up 14 from the previous day and 23 from the previous week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 05 contract was 3299, up 7 from the previous day and 4 from the previous week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 10 contract was 3307, up 7 from the previous day and down 7 from the previous week [8]. 3.6.2 Spot Prices - On November 25, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3296, up 13 from the previous day and 17 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3250, up 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Beijing was 3230, unchanged from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Hangzhou was 3290, up 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3220, up 10 from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3300, up 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3330, up 20 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week; the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Shenyang was 3220, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [8]. 3.6.3 Overseas Data of Hot - Rolled Coils - On November 25, 2025, the FOB export price of hot - rolled coils in China was 450, up 5 from November 18; the FOB export price in Japan was 490, down 5; the FOB export price in India was 485, down 5; the FOB export price in Turkey was 520, down 20; the FOB export price in the CIS was 455, down 15. The CFR import price of hot - rolled coils in Southeast Asia was 462, up 4; the CFR import price in the Middle East was 490, down 5; the CFR import price in the EU was 580, down 5; the CFR import price in India was 490, down 5 [9]. 3.6.4 Month - to - Month Spreads - On November 25, 2025, the 01 - 05 month - to - month spread of rebar was - 19, up 10 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week; the 05 - 10 month - to - month spread was - 47, up 2 from the previous day and down 6 from the previous week; the 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was 66, down 12 from the previous day and 24 from the previous week. The 01 - 05 month - to - month spread of hot - rolled coils was 10, up 19 from the previous day and 19 from the previous week; the 05 - 10 month - to - month spread was - 8, up 11 from the previous day and 11 from the previous week; the 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was - 2, down 7 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week [9]. 3.6.5 Rebar - Coil Spreads - On November 25, 2025, the 01 rebar - coil spread was 203, down 3 from the previous day and 7 from the previous week; the 05 rebar - coil spread was 174, unchanged from the previous day and up 18 from the previous week; the 10 rebar - coil spread was 135, up 2 from the previous day and 1 from the previous week. The spot rebar - coil spread in Shanghai was 50, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the spot rebar - coil spread in Beijing was 120, up 20 from the previous day and the previous week; the spot rebar - coil spread in Shenyang was 30, down 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week [9].