铜产业链的脱碳挑战

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - Copper plays an irreplaceable role in the green decarbonization process, being essential for electrification and renewable energy systems [4][15] - The global copper supply system faces structural challenges, with a projected supply gap of over 30% by 2035 due to declining ore grades and high dependency on imports [26][32] - The transition to green copper production is critical, with a focus on reducing carbon emissions in mining and smelting processes [36][43] Summary by Sections 1. Irreplaceability of Copper in the Green Decarbonization Process - The core drivers of green decarbonization include electrification, which accounts for over 70% of global carbon emissions [15] - Copper demand in the electricity sector is expected to double by 2050, driven by grid expansion and renewable energy integration [16] - In the transportation sector, electric vehicles require approximately 2.5 times more copper than traditional vehicles, with demand projected to reach 2.1 million tons by 2025 [22] 2. Copper Supply System Challenges vs. 2°C Goal - The copper supply system is facing structural issues, including resource concentration in a few countries and declining ore grades, which have decreased from 2.0% in 1900 to an expected 0.5% by 2030 [26][27] - By 2035, the copper supply gap is projected to reach 30% under existing policies, with potential increases to 35% and 40% in more ambitious scenarios [32][33] 3. Copper's Green Transition Path and Strategic Implications - The mining sector must focus on energy efficiency, transportation, and waste management to reduce emissions [40] - Smelting processes are responsible for 90% of the carbon emissions in the copper supply chain, necessitating a shift towards greener technologies [36][43] - Global policies are evolving to support low-carbon copper production, with targets for recycled copper to reach 24% by 2025 and 50% by 2030 [46]