生猪日报：供应压力增加，现货继续回落-20251125

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: [Livestock Daily] Supply Pressure Increases, Spot Prices Continue to Fall [2] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Spot prices of live pigs across the country continued to decline slightly today. The overall supply pressure in the live pig market is expected to continue, and the general trend of spot prices is expected to be weak. [2] - Live pig futures prices showed a slight oscillation, and the market remained stable overall. In the short - term, prices will oscillate, but in the long - term, there is still significant downward pressure on futures prices. [4] Group 4: Spot Market Information Spot Prices - Today's prices in various regions showed a decline. For example, in Henan, the price dropped from 11.49 to 11.34, a decrease of 0.15. The average price remained unchanged at 11.62 [2]. Sow and Piglet Prices - Piglet prices remained at 209, and sow prices remained at 1546 this week [2]. Contract Spreads - For example, LH7 - 9 changed from - 930 to - 925, an increase of 5; LH9 - 1 changed from 2225 to 2300, an increase of 75 [2]. Futures Prices - Futures contracts like LH01 increased by 15, LH05 increased by 70, and LH07 increased by 95 [2]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume increased from 172,840 to 173,120, an increase of 280 [2]. Size - based Pig Price Spreads - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased from 0.52 to 0.5, a decrease of 0.02; the spread between large - sized and medium - sized pigs remained at 0.31 [2]. Group 5: Market Analysis - Scale enterprises' overall live pig sales volume decreased, but the follow - up sales pressure is still expected to continue due to the slow progress in the early stage. The enthusiasm for sales among ordinary farmers has increased recently, and the overall sales pressure continues to be evident. [2] - The number of second - fattening entries has decreased recently. Due to the overall decline in the size - based pig price spread and the decrease in live pig prices, the enthusiasm for restocking has decreased compared to before. [2] - The current average weight of live pigs for sale has rebounded compared to before, and the supply of large - weight pigs is still relatively high. The slowdown in the sales rhythm has supported pig prices to some extent. [2] Group 6: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5] - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]