瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will rise and adjust, break through the MA10, and the upper target is 12,600 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,405 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 155 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,124 lots, an increase of 2,425 lots; the position of the main contract is 147,237 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 63,890 tons, a decrease of 492 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import quantity of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import quantity of nickel - iron is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 118,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 885 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2] - The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless - steel is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 585,300 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons [2] - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing start - up area is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 30,900 units, a decrease of 700 units [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, a decrease of 4,300 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Fed Governor Waller, a top candidate for Fed Chair, is mainly concerned about the labor market and advocates a December rate cut; San Francisco Fed President Daly, who usually follows Powell, also worries about a sudden deterioration in the labor market and supports a December rate cut [2] - Chinese President talked with US President Trump, stating that "cooperation benefits both, while confrontation hurts both", and emphasizing that Taiwan's return to China is an important part of the post - war international order. The two leaders also discussed the Ukraine crisis [2] - From January to October, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation increased by 43.8% year - on - year, maintaining a warming trend. In the raw material segment, the rainy season in the Philippines is approaching, and the nickel ore grade is declining, leading to tight raw material inventories of domestic nickel - iron plants. However, the nickel - iron output in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The stainless - steel mills' production profit has been repaired. With the end of the traditional consumption peak season and the expected demand from infrastructure and real estate, the stainless - steel mills' production schedule is expected to increase, leading to increased supply pressure [2] - The downstream demand shows the characteristic of a weak peak season, with low market purchasing willingness, average overall inquiry and transaction performance, and the national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase [2] - Technically, the position has decreased while the price has stabilized, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened, and there is support at the lower edge of the downward channel. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will rise and adjust, break through the MA10, and the upper target is 12,600 [2]