瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The international sugar market is moving towards a situation of loose supply, lacking positive drivers, and the price of raw sugar remains low. In the domestic market, the new sugar - making season is fully underway. Some sugar mills' crushing progress is delayed due to rainfall. With the low international raw sugar price, processing enterprises have high sales profits. The import of sugar in October increased significantly, and the short - term sugar price shows no signs of stopping the decline, and is expected to continue its weak trend [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,387 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 406,329 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,410 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,693 sheets, unchanged from the previous period; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 63,779 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 183 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,097 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 24 yuan/ton; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 5,192 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton. The estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,255 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,480 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton; the spot price in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,595 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, with an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, with an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, with an increase of 5.49 million tons. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 602.29 million tons, with an increase of 26.66 million tons. The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 241.88 million tons, unchanged. The total sugar exports from Brazil are 420.5 million tons, with an increase of 95.92 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,277 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,228 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 182 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 58 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 119 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 57 yuan/ton. The monthly sugar import volume is 75 million tons, with an increase of 20 million tons; the cumulative sugar import volume is 390 million tons, with an increase of 74 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 88.3 million tons, with an increase of 34.39 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1,096.2 million tons, with a decrease of 495.5 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.8%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.8%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.14 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.01%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 7, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 114,807 lots, an increase of 9,600 lots from the previous week. The long position was 177,486 lots, a decrease of 4,117 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 292,293 lots, an increase of 5,483 lots from the previous week. Brazil exported 2.564 million tons of sugar in the first three weeks of November, with an average daily export volume of 183,000 tons, a 3% increase compared to the average daily export volume of 178,400 tons in the whole of November last year. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 0.04 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at 14.82 cents a pound, continuing the volatile trend [2].