Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-25 10:28Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Fed Chair candidate Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly advocate a December rate cut due to concerns about the labor market. The Indonesian government's RKAB quota is relatively loose this year, but the approval cycle will be shortened to one year next year, increasing raw material supply uncertainty. The Philippine nickel ore supply is entering the rainy season with declining ore grades, and domestic nickel ore inventories are lower than the same period last year. Newly invested electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly, and some smelters are reducing production due to low nickel prices and cost pressures, so the growth of refined nickel production is expected to be limited. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills are not in a strong peak season, but steel mill profits have improved due to falling nickel - iron costs, and production volume is expected to rise. New - energy vehicle production and sales continue to climb, contributing a small demand increase. Domestic nickel inventories continue to grow, and the spot premium has risen; overseas LME inventories are also increasing. It is expected that nickel prices will oscillate weakly. Technically, with falling positions and rising prices, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened. It is expected that Shanghai nickel will rebound and adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the MA10 resistance [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 116,160 yuan/ton, the 01 - 02 month contract spread is - 170 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month nickel price is 14,730 US dollars/ton, the main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 141,215 lots (down 6,339 lots), the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 30,989 lots, the LME nickel inventory is 253,482 tons (down 468 tons), the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 39,795 tons, the LME nickel cancelled warrants are 10,308 tons (down 450 tons), and the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 33,650 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 118,550 yuan/ton, the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 118,650 yuan/ton (up 1,100 yuan/ton), the CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, the basis of the NI main contract is 2,390 yuan/ton (up 170 yuan/ton), and the LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 190.47 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 million tons (down 143.17 million tons), the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,499.76 million tons (down 9.73 million tons), the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 57.33 US dollars/wet ton, and the average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 41.71 US dollars/ton [3] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, and the total monthly nickel - iron production is 2.29 million metal tons (up 0.12 million metal tons) [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons (down 18,631.22 tons), the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 180 million tons, the monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 90.51 million tons, and the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.53 million tons (down 0.59 million tons) [3] Industry News - The Fed Chair candidate Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly advocate a December rate cut due to concerns about the labor market. The Chinese President had a phone call with the US President Trump, emphasizing that "cooperation benefits both sides and confrontation hurts both" and the importance of Taiwan's return to China in the post - war international order, and the two leaders also talked about the Ukraine crisis. From January to October, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation increased by 43.8% year - on - year, and the new photovoltaic installed capacity in October was 12.6GW, up 30.4% month - on - month [3]