Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-25 10:28Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will experience oscillatory adjustments, with attention focused on the range of 22,300 - 22,600 yuan/ton. The zinc market is influenced by multiple factors, including supply - side constraints and demand - side fluctuations. The market is expected to gradually shift towards net exports, and the overall trading atmosphere has shown signs of improvement [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,360 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quote is 3,003 dollars/ton, up 11 dollars [3]. - The 01 - 02 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 190,891 lots, down 2,396 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 7,620 lots, down 105 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 100,347 tons, down 545 tons; the LME inventory is 47,425 tons, up 100 tons [3]. b) Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 40 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 140.2 dollars/ton, up 5.11 dollars [3]. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,630 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. c) Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons [3]. - The global zinc ore production (monthly) is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. d) Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume (monthly) is 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume (monthly) is 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory (weekly) is 161,900 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons [3]. e) Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. f) Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 3.08%, down 8.63 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 1.29%, down 10.42 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 11.21%, down 0.47 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 9.03%, down 0.18 percentage points [3]. g) Industry News - The potential candidate for the Fed Chairman, Fed Governor Waller, is mainly concerned about the labor market and advocates a rate cut in December; San Francisco Fed President Daly, who usually follows Powell, also supports a rate cut in December due to concerns about a sudden deterioration in the labor market [3]. - The Chinese President had a phone call with the US President, emphasizing that "cooperation benefits both sides, while confrontation hurts both" and the importance of Taiwan's return to China in the post - war international order. The two leaders also discussed the Ukraine crisis [3]. - From January to October, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation increased by 43.8% year - on - year, continuing the recovery trend. As of the end of October, the national solar power installed capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a 43.8% year - on - year increase. The newly added photovoltaic installed capacity in October was 12.6GW, a 30.4% month - on - month increase [3]. h) Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, zinc ore imports have increased as long - term agreement ores signed by smelters have arrived at ports, and smelters are stocking up for winter production. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees have decreased, sulfuric acid prices have fallen, smelter profits have shrunk significantly, and some smelters are in the red. Although new production capacities are being released, the growth of refined zinc production is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift towards net exports expected [3]. - On the demand side, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" have been lackluster, with the real estate sector being a drag. Policy support in the automobile and home appliance sectors has brought some highlights. The downstream market mainly purchases on dips, the atmosphere has improved, the spot premium has rebounded, and domestic inventories have decreased slightly. LME zinc inventories have increased, but the spot premium remains high [3]. - Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted. Both bulls and bears are trading cautiously. Attention should be paid to the support of the MA60 [3].