瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's internal calls for interest rate cuts are rising again, with the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December at 81%. The precious metals market has strongly rebounded and broken through the previous shock range. In the short term, there are no clear positive factors in the precious metals market, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may continue to fluctuate. Gold prices are likely to move in a range. In the long term, the US debt pressure is intensifying, investors' confidence in the US dollar is weakening, and gold is still attractive as a hedge against US dollar credit. The central bank's gold purchases also support long - term gold prices. The focus ranges are 920 - 960 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2602 contract and 11700 - 12500 yuan/kg for the Shanghai Silver 2602 contract [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai Gold main contract closing price: 946.5 yuan/gram, up 16.18; Shanghai Silver main contract closing price: 12127 yuan/kg, up 319. - Shanghai Gold main contract open interest: 181169 lots, up 16549; Shanghai Silver main contract open interest: 366660 lots, up 19192. - Shanghai Gold main contract top 20 net positions: 110012 lots, up 3392; Shanghai Silver main contract top 20 net positions: 88690 lots, down 2786. - Gold warehouse receipts: 90423 kg, down 3; Silver warehouse receipts: 540572 kg, up 8273 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price: 925.39 yuan/gram, down 2.11; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price: 11818 yuan/kg, down 97. - Shanghai Gold main contract basis: - 4.93 yuan/gram, down 5.49; Shanghai Silver main contract basis: 10 yuan/kg, down 225 [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings: 1040.86 tons, up 0.29; Silver ETF holdings: 15511.81 tons, up 253.89. - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions: 231956 contracts, down 20952; Silver CTFC non - commercial net positions: 46217 contracts, down 3522. - Total gold supply (quarterly): 1248.76 tons, up 42.73; Total silver supply (annually): 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. - Total gold demand (quarterly): 1313.07 tons, up 86.25; Total global silver demand (annually): 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2] 3.4 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of gold: 22.26%, up 0.14; 40 - day historical volatility of gold: 28.43%, up 0.04. - At - the - money call option implied volatility of gold: 24.37%, up 2.28; At - the - money put option implied volatility of gold: 24.38%, up 2.29 [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US and Ukraine completed a new 19 - point peace agreement draft, but sensitive issues remain to be decided. European countries warned that an agreement cannot be quickly reached, and Russia said the peace plan is not constructive. - Fed Governor Waller advocated a December interest rate cut due to a weak labor market. San Francisco Fed President Daly supported a rate cut next month, believing the risk of a sudden deterioration in the job market is greater [2]