瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the RB2601 contract continued to rise with decreasing positions. The central bank conducted a 10000 - billion - yuan medium - term lending facility (MLF) operation. The production of rebar stopped falling and rebounded but remained at a low level. Terminal demand increased, inventory decreased, and spot market trading volume rose. Recently, with the rebound of major furnace charges and positive macro news, the reduction of short positions in mainstream holdings supported the futures price to rise. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. The reference view is oscillating bullish, and risk control should be noted [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,106.00 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the position volume was 1,301,038 lots, down 131,667 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 46,573 lots, down 3,448 lots. The spread between the RB1 - 5 contracts was - 19 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 67,292 tons, up 2,134 tons. The spread between the HC2601 - RB2601 contracts was 203 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,374 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,470.00 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,220.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 184.00 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The spot spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 50.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 798.00 yuan/wet ton, up 5.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,690.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 150.5088 million tons, down 750,400 tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 433,300 tons, up 73,000 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.224 million tons, up 25,000 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, up 0.25%. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.161 million tons, down 6,200 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.56%, down 0.26% [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The production of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.0796 million tons, up 79,600 tons. The capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 45.59%, up 1.74%. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.5332 million tons, down 71,000 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.0002 million tons, down 157,300 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel production was 72 million tons, down 1.49 million tons. The monthly production of Chinese steel bars was 14.75 million tons, up 410,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 9.28 million tons, down 640,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.43, down 0.34. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment was - 1.70%, down 1.20%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 14.70%, down 0.80%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 0.10%, down 1.20%. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.52939 billion square meters, down 43.59 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 490.61 million square meters, down 36.62 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 396.45 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - The atmosphere of the China - US presidential call was positive, friendly, and constructive. The call was initiated by the US side, and it was very important for the stable development of China - US relations. According to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), mainstream economists expect the US economic growth to pick up slightly next year, but the job market will remain weak, and the Fed will slow down the pace of further interest rate cuts [2]