铁合金日报-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 25, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. The silicon ferro (SF) main contract closed at 5448, down 0.15%, with an increase of 9552 in open interest; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5636, up 0.11%, with a decrease of 13172 in open interest [5]. - For silicon ferro, the spot price was generally stable on the 25th. The supply is decreasing slightly as alloy plants enter the maintenance stage. Demand is expected to decline as future hot metal production is likely to fall. Costs are generally stable with a slight upward trend. Overall, with both supply and demand decreasing and cost support, it is recommended to operate with a bottom - oscillation mindset [5]. - For manganese silicon, manganese ore spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend on the 25th, and manganese silicon spot prices were generally stable. Supply is also in a downward trend with some manufacturers in Ningxia adding maintenance and shutdowns. Demand is expected to decline. Costs are rising as port inventories of manganese ore are at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom under the game of weak supply - demand and cost support [5]. - Unilateral: With a weak supply - demand pattern, low valuation, and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Trading Volume | Daily Change | Open Interest | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SF Main Contract | 5448 | - 8 | - 74 | 316787 | - 44115 | 208059 | 9552 | | SM Main Contract | 5636 | 6 | - 44 | 120736 | - 81677 | 384812 | - 13172 | [2] 3.1.2 Spot - Silicon ferro: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were stable on the 25th, with weekly decreases ranging from 20 to 200 yuan/ton [2]. - Manganese silicon: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were stable on the 25th, with weekly decreases ranging from 20 to 80 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.3 Basis/Spread - Silicon ferro: The basis between Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai and the main contract increased, and the spread between Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SF - SM spread decreased by 14 yuan/ton on the day and 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]. - Manganese silicon: The basis between Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi and the main contract decreased, and the spread between Guangxi and Inner Mongolia increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]. 3.1.4 Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): The price of Gabon lump increased by 0.3 yuan/ton degree on the day and 0.5 yuan/ton degree week - on - week, while the prices of Australian lump and South African semi - carbonate were stable [2]. - Blue charcoal small materials: The prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [2]. 3.2 Market Judgement 3.2.1 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Operate with a bottom - oscillation mindset; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3.2.2 Important Information - On the 25th, the quotation of semi - carbonate Mn36.81% at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton degree, South African high - iron Mn33.77%Fe21.14% with a particle size of 6 - 100mm was quoted at 30 yuan/ton degree, and Gabon lump Mn47% was quoted at 42 yuan/ton degree [7]. - A silicon - manganese plant in Ningxia reduced production of 1 silicon - manganese 6517 furnace [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - Figures include the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the monthly spread of silicon ferro and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon ferro and manganese silicon, spot prices of silicon ferro and manganese silicon, ferroalloy electricity prices, and cost - profit charts of silicon ferro and manganese silicon [9][11][13][15][17][23].