银河期货花生日报-20251125

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Peanut Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [1][2] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term, while peanut futures will fluctuate at the bottom. The new - season peanut output is expected to be higher than last year, and there is still room for the price of Peanut 01 to fall [4][8]. Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Volume Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PK604 | 7934 | 72 | 0.91% | 30,783 | -23.63% | 19,377 | -5.00% | | PK510 | 8206 | 40 | 0.49% | 56 | -49.55% | 637 | -0.62% | | PK601 | 7936 | 78 | 0.98% | 98,799 | -12.08% | 107,328 | -9.80% | [2] Spot Market and Basis - Spot prices in Henan are stable, while those in Northeast China are rising. For example, the price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.95 yuan/jin, and the price in Changtu, Liaoning has increased by 0.1 yuan/jin to 4.9 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan is between 3.65 - 3.9 yuan/jin. Imported peanut prices are stable, with Sudanese refined rice at 8,600 yuan/ton, Senegalese peanuts at 7,600 yuan/ton, Brazilian new peanuts at 9,200 yuan/ton, and Indian specification peanuts (50/60) at 8,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Today, some peanut oil mills have lowered their purchase prices, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 7,050 - 7,200 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills is 7,900 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil are stable, with the domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil quoted at 14,500 yuan/ton and the small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16,500 yuan/ton [4][6]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao has fallen, and the unit protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low. In the short term, peanut meal is relatively strong, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3,190 yuan/ton [6]. Import Price - Sudanese peanuts are priced at 8,600 yuan/ton, and Senegalese peanuts are priced at 7,600 yuan/ton, both with no price change [2][4]. Spread | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PK01 - PK04 | 2 | 6 | | PK04 - PK10 | - 272 | 32 | | PK10 - PK01 | 270 | - 38 | [2] Group 5: Market Analysis - The price of common peanuts has risen recently, and the price of imported peanuts is stable. The price difference between oil - used peanuts and commercial peanuts is large, and the price difference between common peanuts in Henan and Northeast China is at a high level. With the increase in supply and weak downstream demand, peanut prices are relatively stable in the short term [8]. - The spot price of peanut oil is stable, and peanut meal has been stable recently. The theoretical压榨 profit of oil mills is good. The quality of peanuts in Henan and other places is poor, and the spot price is relatively low but starting to rise. Currently, the futures market reflects the loose supply of oil - used peanuts, and oil mills have not carried out large - scale purchases. However, the price of common peanuts in Henan has increased today [4][8]. Group 6: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Peanuts 01 and 05 will fluctuate at a low level. Short Peanut 01 on rallies [9]. Inter - month Spread - Reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread when it is high [10]. Options - Hold the short position of PK601 - P - 7600 [11] Group 7: Related Figures - Figure 1: Shandong Peanut Spot Price (Unit: yuan/ton) [13] - Figure 2: Peanut Oil Mill Pressing Profit (Unit: yuan/ton) [13] - Figure 3: Peanut Oil Price (Unit: yuan/ton) [17] - Figure 4: Peanut Spot and Continuous Contract Basis (Unit: yuan/ton) [17] - Figure 5: Peanut 10 - 1 Contract Spread (Unit: yuan/ton) [20] - Figure 6: Peanut 1 - 4 Contract Spread (Unit: yuan/ton) [20]