油脂产业周报：上行驱动不足，油脂维持偏弱震荡-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of oils and fats, and the market is running weakly. Wait for the final US energy policy to boost the oils and fats market and further news on Indonesia's B50 plan. The strategy is mainly to wait and see. Due to palm oil entering the production - reduction season and the early Ramadan in Southeast Asia next year, there may be an opportunity to go long on the far - month P05 contract. At the same time, the support for rapeseed oil and soybean oil in the short - term is more obvious than that for palm oil, so one can continue to be bullish on the widening of the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads and the P1 - 5 reverse spread [1][2]. - The trend is expected to be in short - term shock adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term. The price ranges are: P2601 in the range of [8400 - 9000], Y2601 in the range of [8000 - 8500], and OI in the range of [9300 - 10000]. Short - term attention should be paid to the far - month rebound opportunity of palm oil [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The key issue in the oils and fats market is the global supply - demand balance, with the core drivers mainly from the external market. The core contradictions include: the ability of growing demand to digest the inventory pressure of palm oil in producing areas; the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy; and the game between the weak domestic reality and international expectations [1][2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgement: Short - term shock adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term. - Price Range: P2601 in the range of [8400 - 9000], Y2601 in the range of [8000 - 8500], OI in the range of [9300 - 10000]. - Technical Analysis: For single - side short - term trading, take a bearish view on palm oil. For arbitrage, go long on the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads [15]. - Basis, Calendar Spread and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: The current basis is expected to be in short - term weak shock. The P1 - 5 reverse spread trend will continue. The rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads will widen [16][17]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The price ranges for soybean oil are 8000 - 8500, for rapeseed oil are 9300 - 10300, and for palm oil are 8400 - 9000. - Hedging Strategy: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refineries, and oil mills according to their inventory and procurement situations [18][20]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - The report provides the latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both the futures and spot markets, as well as inter - month and inter - variety spreads [21][22]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: There are rumors that the import procedures for Australian rapeseed may be problematic, and the Russian government's decision to cancel the railway transportation price - reduction coefficient for food may indirectly increase the cost of by - products. As of November 21, 2025, the rapeseed inventory in coastal oil mills was 0 tons, the rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 0.83 tons to 1.25 tons, and the unexecuted contracts increased by 1.87 tons to 2.45 tons [23]. - Negative Information: The开机 rate of major oil mills in the country continued to rise last week, and the weekly soybean crushing volume reached over 2.3 million tons. US soybean export inspection volume decreased. As of November 21, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils and fats increased by 0.10 tons to 222.40 tons, and the palm oil inventory increased by 1.39 tons to 66.71 tons [24]. - Spot Transaction Information: The trading volume of oils and fats has improved slightly recently, with rapeseed oil and soybean oil having better transactions, while palm oil has weaker transactions [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data; high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil; progress of the re - allocation decision of small refinery exemptions in the US; progress of China - Canada trade negotiations; and news on China's purchase of US soybeans [32]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: The oils and fats market is running weakly this week. The market sentiment is bearish. Pay attention to the US bio - energy policy and the de - stocking progress in producing areas. The positions of key profitable seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are cautious. The basis continues to be weak, and the market shows a differentiated structure [29][31][33]. - External Market: The external market is in weak shock. Palm oil production in producing areas continues to increase in November, and the confidence in Indonesia's B50 plan is insufficient. The bio - fuel policy is affected, and the purchase of US soybeans lacks substantial progress. Rapeseed oil has the most obvious support in the sector [52]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The POGO spread rebounded slightly, and the cost of producing bio - fuel from palm oil decreased slightly. The BOHO spread continued to weaken, and the cost of producing biodiesel from US soybean oil remained at a recent low [60]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The import profit has changed slightly, and there are few new purchase orders under the negative basis [62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction in Producing Areas - The November MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil shows that it is still in the production - increasing stage. Pay attention to the production and de - stocking progress in producing areas [64]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm Oil: Traders' purchasing willingness is low under the negative basis. In the off - season, transactions are difficult to improve. With the production - reduction season in producing areas at the end of the year, domestic purchase orders are expected to remain low. - Soybean Oil: The arrival of raw materials will decline in December, the crushing volume may decrease, and the supply pressure will gradually weaken. - Rapeseed Oil: Although the premium of rapeseed oil is obvious, the downstream demand is limited. Due to poor purchase orders, the inventory is gradually decreasing. If the China - Canada relationship cannot be eased, the supply will remain tight [67]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory pressure of the three major oils and fats is large, and the demand is low. Although the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season, the market boost after the festival stocking is limited, and the overall terminal demand is still weak [69].