固收、宏观周报：延迟的数据，推迟的降息-20251125

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past week (20251117 - 20251123), major stock indices in the US and Hong Kong, as well as A - shares in China, all declined. The Fed may turn dovish again, and there are investment opportunities in domestic equity markets and potential for gold prices to remain strong [2][3][15]. - The A - share market is likely to strengthen in subsequent oscillations, and attention can be paid to investment opportunities in sectors such as new energy, photovoltaic, coal, steel, chemical, chip, computing power, and artificial intelligence. The bond market will likely continue to oscillate within a narrow range, and gold prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation [16]. 3. Summary by Related Content Stock Market Performance - US stock indices and the Hang Seng Index declined. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by - 2.74%, - 1.95%, and - 1.91% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by - 6.06%. The Hang Seng Index changed by - 5.09% [2]. - A - shares tumbled across the board. The wind All - A Index changed by - 5.13%, and various indices such as CSI A100, CSI 300, etc., also declined [3]. - Blue - chip and growth sectors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both dropped. The Shanghai Composite 50 and STAR Market 50 in Shanghai declined, and the Shenzhen Component 100 and ChiNext Index in Shenzhen also fell. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index changed by - 9.04% [4]. - Among industries, banking, consumer goods, etc., had relatively small declines, and bond - related ETFs led the gains. All 30 CITIC industries fell, with banking, food and beverage, media, and home appliances having declines of less than 2.0% [5]. Bond Market Performance - The national debt market fluctuated within a narrow range. The 10 - year national debt futures main contract rose 0.01% compared to November 14, 2025, and the yield of the 10 - year active national debt bond increased by 0.26 BP [6]. - Fund prices mainly decreased, and the central bank made a net injection in open - market operations. As of November 21, 2025, R007 increased by 0.07 BP, and DR007 decreased by 2.65 BP. The central bank made a net injection of 554 billion yuan [7]. - The bond market leverage level decreased. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume decreased from 74.4 trillion yuan on November 14, 2025, to 72.9 trillion yuan on November 21, 2025 [9]. - US Treasury yields declined, and the yield curve shifted downward overall. As of November 21, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield changed by - 8 BP to 4.06% [10]. Exchange Rate and Commodity Market Performance - The US dollar strengthened, and the RMB depreciated against the US dollar. The US dollar index rose 0.87%, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen all increased. The exchange rates of the US dollar against the offshore and on - shore RMB also rose [11]. - Gold prices showed a split between the international and domestic markets. The London gold spot price rose 0.04%, while the domestic Shanghai gold spot and futures prices fell by 2.49% and 2.79% respectively [12]. US Economic Data and Fed Expectations - In September, the number of new non - farm jobs in the US exceeded expectations, but the number of unemployed people increased significantly. The unemployment rate reached 4.4%, rising for the fourth consecutive month [13]. - The latest futures data shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is again higher than 50%. Due to the delayed release of non - farm data, the Fed's December decision will be based on September data [14].