银河期货油脂日报-20251125

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the overall trend of oils and fats lacks drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and an overall oscillating state. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long and short operations within a range [8]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing price of 2601 for soybean oil is 8144, down 24; palm oil is 8360, down 126; and rapeseed oil is 9818, up 40. The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil shows different trends in different regions [2]. - Monthly Spread: The 1 - 5 monthly spread for soybean oil is 198, down 8; for palm oil is - 82, up 8; and for rapeseed oil is 330, down 26 [2]. - Cross - Variety Spread: The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 216, with a change of 64; OI - Y is 1674, with a change of 102; OI - P is 1458, with a change of 166; the oil - meal ratio is 2.70, down 0.01 [2]. - Import Profit: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is 1034, and the FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is 1082, with corresponding import profit situations [2]. - Weekly Commercial Inventory: In the 46th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 105.3 (last week: 65.3, last year: 118.0), palm oil is 66.7 (last week: 48.3), and rapeseed oil is 38.5 (last week: 43.0, last year: 44.1) [2]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - International Market: As of the week of November 21, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit is $2.73 per bushel, down 12.2% from the previous week. The average crushing profit in 2024 was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 in 2023 [4]. - Domestic Market (P/Y/OI): - Palm Oil: The futures price closed down by more than 1%. As of November 21, 2025, the commercial inventory was 66.71 tons, up 2.13% from the previous week. The import profit inversion has widened to around - 300. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5]. - Soybean Oil: The futures price closed slightly down. The actual crushing volume last week was 233.44 tons, and the inventory was 117.99 tons, up 2.73% from the previous week. It is expected to maintain an oscillating state, and it is recommended to wait and see and consider light - position long after a stable correction [5]. - Rapeseed Oil: The futures price closed slightly up. The crushing volume last week was 0 tons, and the inventory was 38.5 tons, down 4.5 tons from the previous week. The import profit inversion has widened to around - 1000. It is recommended to consider going long on OI03 or 05 contracts on dips [6]. Third Part: Trading Strategy - Single - Side: Wait and see or conduct short - term long and short operations within a range [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of different oils and fats, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2016 - 2025 [12][15].