中国商品期货跨境套利周报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Silver, Copper, Zinc: Potential [5] - Gold: On hold [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The valuation of the silver price difference fell to a neutral level, and the spot market for silver in London is tight, supporting the price difference. The COMEX and LME copper price spread may narrow. The pressure of squeezing zinc on the LME will ease. The DXY in Q4 might be in the range of 95 - 102. Gold and silver prices are in a shock adjustment period, and their internal and external price differences are gradually falling. The London silver squeeze risk has not been completely lifted, and the price of silver in the external market still has support [6][7][15]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - Gold - Last week, the gold price difference dropped from its peak, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA price difference fluctuated. This week, the gold price continues the shock adjustment period, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets gradually falls. It is recommended to take profit on the strategy of shorting the price difference between domestic and foreign markets at high prices [15]. - Silver - Last week, the silver price difference fluctuated and then dropped, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA price difference fluctuated. This week, the risk of a silver squeeze in London has not been completely lifted, the price of silver in the external market still has support, the valuation of the price difference is neutral, and the strategy of shorting the price difference at high prices is maintained [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper - Last week, the domestic copper inventory was depleted slowly. Considering that the copper import window remained in a loss, the cross - market strategy suggested a short - term wait - and - see approach. This week, cross - market arbitrage is temporarily on hold [25]. - Aluminum - Last week, the domestic weekly aluminum ingot inventory first rose and then declined, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased. In the short term, the foreign - exchange ratio remained within a fluctuation range, and cross - market arbitrage is currently on hold [32]. - Zinc - Last week, the window for exporting Chinese zinc opened, domestic zinc inventories were depleting, and the LME planned to limit large open interest in near contracts, which is expected to alleviate the squeeze pressure on zinc. This week, it is recommended to go long on SHFE zinc and short on LME zinc [38][43]. - Lead - Last week, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, the smelter inventory remained low, the canceled warrants for LME lead increased again, and the destocking continued. This week, cross - market arbitrage for lead is temporarily on hold [44]. - Nickel - Last week, the nickel import window was closed, with fluctuations within a numerical range, and the situation of extreme price differences has significantly improved. This week, cross - market arbitrage is temporarily on hold [51]. - Tin - Last week, the tin price ratio rebounded, the spot tin import window remained closed, the import loss was 16,328 yuan/ton, and the driving force behind the tin price spread was not obvious. This week, cross - market arbitrage is temporarily on hold [55]. Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore - Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers and experienced slight fluctuations. This week, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [61]. Energy - Crude Oil - Last week, the SC - Brent price spread edged higher. This week, due to the high volatility of freight rates and the uncertainty of Russian crude oil supply, it is recommended to wait and see [65]. - Natural Gas (TFU - HH) - Last week, the price gap continued to decline. The cold wave and the expectation of increased exports continued to push up the price of natural gas in the United States, while in November, the mild temperature and strong wind power output in Europe led to weak gas - power demand, and the increased LNG supply pressured the price. This week, it is recommended to wait and see, and be cautious about short - selling [100]. Agriculturals - Soybean - Last week, the import crushing margins of soybeans were bottom - oscillating. With the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, an improved margin is expected. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [71]. - Sugar - Last week, the import crushing margins of sugar edged higher, and it is expected that in the medium to long term, the Chinese market likely outperforms ICE. This week, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [75]. - Natural Rubber - Last week, there was little change, and the price spread remained in the non - arbitrage range. Globally, as the tapping season begins, there is an expectation of increased supply, but there is no improvement on the demand side, leading to weakness in prices. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [84]. Overseas Arbitrage - COMEX - LME Copper - Last week, the price divergence between COMEX and LME copper was due to capital outflows to COMEX copper. Currently, with the Fed's decisions diverging and more governors' statements turning hawkish, there is uncertainty about the December rate - cut decision. Gold and silver prices are fluctuating, while COMEX copper continues to accumulate inventory and LME copper depletes inventory. This week, it is recommended to short COMEX copper and long LME copper [85]. - Brent - Dubai EFS - Last week, the Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS rebounded. This week, due to the oscillating spot discount of Middle - Eastern crude oil and the high volatility of freight rates, the short - term indication is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [90]. - WTI - Brent - Last week, the WTI - Brent price spread fluctuated. This week, with the U.S. refinery operating rate stabilizing and rebounding, low refined - oil inventories, and the expected stable shale - oil production under the background of oscillating oil prices, the price - spread driver is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [96].