Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-25 11:02Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In October, multiple domestic economic indicators weakened, indicating significant downward pressure on the economy, which suppresses the stock market. The continuous unchanged LPR for six months reflects a prudent monetary policy, with a low possibility of significant reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. Although the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents on the 24th boosted short - term market risk appetite, in the current environment of multiple vacuums in macro data, performance, and policies, it cannot provide continuous upward momentum, and the stock index will maintain a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Contract Prices: IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract (2512) rose to 4473.0, up 29.4; the IH main contract (2512) rose to 2959.2, up 10.4; the IC main contract (2512) rose to 6900.0, up 58.0; the IM main contract (2512) rose to 7172.0, up 60.4 [2]. - Price Spreads: Various price spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. changed. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread increased to 1513.8, up 23.0; the IC - IF current - month contract spread increased to 2427.0, up 34.6 [2]. - Seasonal - to - Current Month Differences: Some seasonal - to - current month differences changed. For example, IF when - season - to - current increased to - 29.0, up 0.2; IH when - season - to - current decreased to - 5.2, down 2.2 [2]. - Net Positions of Top 20: The net positions of the top 20 in different contracts changed. For example, the IF top 20 net position increased to - 24,028.00, up 329.0; the IH top 20 net position decreased to - 10,694.00, down 174.0 [2]. - Basis: The basis of main contracts decreased. For example, the IF main contract basis decreased to - 17.4, down 4.6; the IH main contract basis decreased to - 9.0, down 2.8 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.53%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.77%. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market turnover increased slightly, and nearly 4300 stocks rose. The communication and media sectors strengthened significantly, while the national defense and military industry and transportation sectors declined [2]. - Economic Indicators: In October, domestic imports and exports, fixed - asset investment, social retail sales, and industrial added value of large - scale industries all declined significantly compared to the previous values. The fixed - asset investment declined for 7 consecutive months, and social retail sales declined for 5 consecutive months. The real estate market continued to decline. In terms of financial data, the decline of M1 growth rate was greater than that of M2, and the M1 - M2 scissors - difference ended the 5 - month upward trend. The 11 - month LPR remained unchanged for the 6th consecutive month [2]. 3.3 Industry News - On the evening of November 24, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Trump said he would visit China in April next year, which boosted short - term market risk appetite [2]. 3.4 Key Events to Watch - November 25, 21:30: US September PPI, core PPI, retail sales - November 26, 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 - November 26, 23:00: US October PCE, core PCE - November 27, 9:30: China's October industrial enterprise profits above designated size - November 30, 9:30: China's November manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI [3]