PP日报：震荡下行-20251125

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PP market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, with limited follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving. There is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, and the anti - involution policy in the PP industry has not been implemented yet [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving start - up rate of the main downstream of drawstring remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 25th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Shanghai Secco's single - line led to an increase in the PP enterprise start - up rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - side crude oil price dropped. New production capacity was put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices decreased recently [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract increased positions and fluctuated downward, closing at 6317 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The position increased by 581 lots to 605,759 lots [2] - Spot: PP spot prices in various regions partially declined, with drawstring reported at 6180 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 25th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Shanghai Secco's single - line led to an increase in the PP enterprise start - up rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week of November 21st, the PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving start - up rate of the main downstream of drawstring remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 2.5 tons to 68.5 tons week - on - week, 8 tons higher than the same period last year, and the petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down [4] 4. Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $730 per ton week - on - week [6]