【冠通期货研究报告】美联储降息预期升温

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has increased. Although there is strong support from the expected tight balance of copper mines, the current off - season demand and the increase in SHFE inventory have weakened market confidence. The recent game of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has led to small fluctuations in copper prices. If the interest - rate cut is realized, copper prices are expected to be slightly stronger [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Today, copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong and volatile trend. Waller unexpectedly released dovish signals, igniting the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut. The probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut in December has risen to 81%. Copper concentrate inventory has increased for a week, and the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is still ongoing, with the TC and RC remaining stable. Refined copper imports have decreased month - on - month, but the domestic copper supply is relatively abundant. The SHFE copper inventory has also increased, and there is no shortage of supply. The 770th document has not been implemented, so the production of recycled copper rods in Jiangxi and Anhui has decreased. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2 million and 40 thousand tons, a month - on - month decline of over 10% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.3% [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong and volatile trend. Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 80 yuan/ton, and in South China it is 120 yuan/ton. On November 24, 2025, the LME official price was 10,775 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was +20 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of November 25, the latest data shows that the spot TC is - 42.35 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC is - 4.42 US cents/pound [6] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 41,000 tons, a decrease of 2,851 tons from the previous period. As of November 24, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 115,300 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 155,800 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 409,400 short tons, an increase of 4,363 short tons from the previous period [9]