【冠通期货研究报告】塑料日报：震荡下行-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - With the overall supply-demand pattern unchanged, plastics are expected to experience weak oscillations in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 25, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [1][4] - As of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week-on-week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film increased slightly again, and the orders for packaging film increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. In addition, the Trump administration is trying to promote a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky has shown an open attitude towards peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 700,000 tons/year were recently put into operation. The plastics operating rate decreased slightly [1] - The agricultural film is entering the end of the peak season, with stable orders but the peak season falling short of expectations. The price of agricultural film is stable. As the temperature drops, the demand in the north begins to decrease, and the downstream operating rate is expected to decline [1] - Downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, mainly for rigid demand. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally reduce prices to actively sell goods. There is no actual policy for anti-involution in the plastics industry yet. Anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2601 contract decreased in positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,758 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,822 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,762 yuan/ton, below the 60-day moving average, with a decline of 0.28%. The position volume decreased by 9,070 lots to 488,359 lots [2] Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from -80 to +50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,770 - 7,150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,640 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,930 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 25, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week-on-week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film increased slightly again, and the orders for packaging film increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - On Tuesday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 685,000 tons compared to the previous day, 80,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in recent years [4] - For the raw material, crude oil: the Brent crude oil 01 contract fell to $63/barrel, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $720/ton week-on-week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730/ton week-on-week [4]