聚焦科技型企业科创债券：潜力蓝海与信用风险特征深度研究

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The science - innovation bond market in China has witnessed rapid development under policy impetus, with continuous expansion in scale and diverse industry distribution of the science - innovation sector. The future development potential is enormous. The predicted issuance scale of science - innovation bonds for sample companies exceeds 50 billion yuan, and the issuance willingness of technology - based enterprises is expected to increase. However, different science - innovation industries have significant differences in credit risk characteristics, and attention should be paid to science - innovation enterprises with weak growth, average profitability, and heavy debt pressure [2][61]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Overview of the Science - Innovation Bond Market - Development Stages: The science - innovation bond market in China has gone through three stages: the "Double - Innovation Bond" stage (starting in 2015), the "Science - Innovation Corporate Bond and Science - Innovation Note" stage (starting in 2022), and the "Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond" stage (starting in May 2025) [4][5]. - Issuance Scale: Since 2021, the issuance scale and number of science - innovation - related bonds have been growing. In 2025 from January to September, the issuance scale reached 1.180853 trillion yuan, with 992 bonds issued, a year - on - year increase of 113.28% and 81.35% respectively. As of the end of September 2025, the market scale of science - innovation bonds reached 2.89 trillion yuan, accounting for 5.59% of the credit - bond stock in terms of scale and 5.42% in terms of number [5]. - Participation of Entities: The participation of private and low - credit - rating entities is relatively low. In 2025 from January to September, among the 548 issuers of 992 science - innovation bonds, AAA - rated entities accounted for 67.88%, AA + - rated entities accounted for 22.45%, and AA - rated and below entities accounted for 9.67%. In terms of enterprise nature, local state - owned enterprises accounted for 57.66%, central state - owned enterprises accounted for 23.91%, and private enterprises accounted for 10.58%. The reasons include investor preference, low credit levels of private enterprises, and lack of effective credit enhancement measures [7]. II. Analysis of the Possibility of Technology - Based Enterprises Issuing Science - Innovation Bonds - Issuance Capacity: Using the average ratio of the scale of corporate bonds issued in the public market in 2024 to the ending owners' equity of the issuing entities (18.57%) as the upper limit of bond issuance, the predicted issuance scale of science - innovation bonds for 1032 sample companies exceeds 50 billion yuan. However, as of October 21, 2025, the actual issuance scale of bonds by these sample companies was 6.2645 billion yuan, and the scale of science - innovation bonds was only 390 million yuan, far lower than the predicted value, indicating large issuance potential [10][13]. - Issuance Willingness: Policy support provides opportunities for technology - based enterprises. Policies have expanded the scope of issuers, optimized the review process, and reduced costs. The improvement of market liquidity, infrastructure, and the long - term capital gap of technology - based enterprises, along with the limitations of traditional financing, are expected to enhance the issuance willingness of technology - based enterprises [17][20][21]. III. Analysis of Credit Risk Characteristics of Technology - Based Enterprises (1) Analysis of Industry Credit Risk Characteristics - Information Technology Industry: Sub - sectors face risks such as strong cyclical fluctuations, technological iteration, and geopolitical impacts on the supply chain. Hardware device sub - sectors like consumer electronics, communication equipment, and semiconductors have their own specific risks, and the software service sector has risks related to human capital and project - driven models [23]. - Biopharmaceutical Industry: It has "high - uncertainty" credit risks dominated by the R & D cycle. Under the policy of medical insurance cost control, the industry will continue to分化. The core of the credit risk lies in the R & D and clinical risks, patent and market monopoly risks, regulatory and policy risks, and financing and liquidity risks [30]. - High - end Equipment Manufacturing Industry: It is capital - and technology - intensive, and the credit risk is "asset + order" dual - driven. The credit risk of enterprises depends on the advancement of equipment, production capacity, and market orders [31]. (2) Analysis of Financial Risk Characteristics - Information Technology Industry: The semiconductor sub - sector shows high growth, high profitability, and low debt levels, but there is internal differentiation. The hardware device sub - sector has moderate revenue growth and profitability but relatively high debt levels. The software service sub - sector has slow revenue growth, extremely weak profitability, and serious internal differentiation, and faces greater financial risks [36]. - Biopharmaceutical Industry: The overall financial performance is relatively stable, but there is significant internal differentiation. Most enterprises have strong profitability, while some are in the R & D or market - introduction stage and rely on a single product or technology transformation for profit. Enterprises with R & D setbacks and heavy debt burdens face higher re - financing and liquidity risks [49]. - High - end Industrial Industry: The overall fundamentals are stable, with moderate revenue growth, differentiated profitability, and weak debt - repayment safety margins. Some enterprises have excessive debt and high supply - chain capital occupation, and face re - financing and liquidity risks [56]. IV. Summary - Market Development: The science - innovation bond market has developed rapidly and has great potential. Although the participation of private and low - credit - rating entities needs to be improved, the market is expected to expand further with policy support and infrastructure optimization [61]. - Credit Risk Differences: Different science - innovation industries have significant differences in credit risk characteristics. Some enterprises in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, communication equipment related to artificial intelligence and computing power, consumer electronics, biopharmaceuticals, and high - end equipment manufacturing have higher development potential and credit levels [62]. - Attention to Specific Enterprises: Attention should be paid to science - innovation enterprises with weak growth, average profitability, and heavy debt pressure, such as those in the software service and biopharmaceutical industries [64].