国投期货化工日报-20251125

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (Red stars represent a predicted trend of rising) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White stars represent a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The olefin - polyolefin market shows mixed trends. Propylene is stable with a slight increase, while plastic and polypropylene are falling due to supply - demand imbalances [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market has a downward trend in pure benzene and a stable - supported trend in styrene [3]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product. PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, PTA follows cost - driven logic, ethylene glycol may rebound in the short - term but has limited medium - term space, short - fiber follows raw material prices, and bottle chip is cost - driven with over - capacity pressure [5]. - The coal - chemical market has different trends for methanol and urea. Methanol may have a long - spread opportunity, while urea is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation [6]. - The chlor - alkali market shows that PVC may stop falling and stabilize, and caustic soda is in a weak operation [7]. - The soda ash - glass market shows that soda ash is in a supply - surplus situation, and glass may have limited downward space [8]. Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures fluctuate above the 5 - day average line. Market lacks news, with stable enterprise quotes and a slight increase in real - deal prices [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures decline. Plastic has increased supply pressure due to reduced maintenance and more arrivals, and weak demand. Polypropylene's supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is limited [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Unified benzene prices continue to fall. There are concerns about Asian pure benzene exports, but the sustainability is questionable. Downstream demand is weak [3]. - Styrene futures fluctuate narrowly. Supply may decrease slightly, demand is good, and inventory is falling, supporting prices [3]. Polyester - PX's short - term supply - demand is weak, but it is expected to be strong in the medium - term. PTA follows cost - driven logic and may see improved processing margins [5]. - Ethylene glycol may rebound in the short - term but has limited medium - term space. Short - fiber follows raw material prices, and bottle chip is cost - driven with over - capacity [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol futures adjust narrowly, and spot prices rise slightly. There may be an opportunity to go long on the 5 - 9 spread, but beware of weak reality [6]. - Urea futures fall, and spot prices in the Northeast rise. The supply - surplus situation is expected to continue [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. There is a possibility of export improvement to India, and inventory is decreasing. It may follow cost changes [7]. - Caustic soda shows an oscillating trend. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is in a weak operation [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash shows a weak trend. It is in a de - stocking situation, with increased production. It is in a supply - surplus situation in the long - term [8]. - Glass shows an oscillating trend. There may be limited downward space due to cost support and potential cold - repair [8].