Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The international oil price rebounded overnight, with the SC01 contract rising 0.67% during the day. The geopolitical risk between Russia and Ukraine is entangled between the reality of sanctions and the expectation of peace talks. The market faces a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and the downward driving force of oil prices remains. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the disturbance of the Venezuela geopolitical risk this week [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by supply disturbances in the short term. The geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline. The medium-term loose pattern is difficult to change. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply is still abundant recently, and it is expected to follow the weakening trend [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume of asphalt has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening law, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a negative impact on BU [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price rebounded overnight, and the SC01 contract rose 0.67% during the day [2] - The geopolitical risk between Russia and Ukraine is entangled between the reality of sanctions and the expectation of peace talks. The US sanctions on Russian oil have come into effect, and the negotiation between the US and Ukraine on the peace plan before the deadline this Thursday is still uncertain [2] - The market faces a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and the downward driving force of oil prices remains. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the disturbance of the Venezuela geopolitical risk this week [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by supply disturbances in the short term. Russian energy facilities are continuously attacked, and the exports have declined slightly recently. The US sanctions on Russia have come into effect. It is expected that its crack spread and monthly spread will be repaired recently [3] - The geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline. The Middle East region will maintain a high level of exports to Asia due to factors such as the decline in power generation demand and the steady production increase of OPEC+. The medium-term loose pattern is difficult to change [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply is still abundant recently. The RFCC devices in the Asia-Pacific region have not fully recovered, and the Dangote maintenance has been advanced. As the gasoline and diesel spread declines due to the increase in refinery start-up, low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to follow the weakening trend [3] Asphalt - Since November, the weekly shipment volume of asphalt has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The latest commercial inventory destocking continues to slow down, and the year-on-year amplitude of social inventory has shown an expanding trend [4] - The recent stable and rising spot price in Shandong has boosted the futures market. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening law, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a negative impact on BU [4]
国投期货能源日报-20251125
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-11-25 11:12