房地产行业年度策略：规模祛魅回归本源

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a return to fundamentals in the real estate industry, suggesting a shift from scale-driven growth to a focus on sustainable development and quality [1][2] - The report predicts a decline in total sales area for 2026, estimating it at 850 million square meters, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year, with a notable drop in pre-sale housing sales [3][19] - The total inventory of commercial housing is projected to decrease from a peak of 4.25 billion square meters in 2021 to 2.77 billion square meters by September 2025, indicating a significant reduction in market supply [13][19] Group 2 - New construction area for 2026 is estimated at 600 million square meters, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, supported by improved land acquisition in core cities [3][28] - The report anticipates a completion area of 540 million square meters in 2026, down 13.2% from the previous year, primarily due to the ongoing impact of reduced new construction in prior years [3][35] - The total construction area is expected to reach 6.11 billion square meters, representing an 8% decline, as the industry continues to recover from previous disruptions [3][44] Group 3 - Real estate development investment is projected to total 7.8 trillion yuan in 2026, a decrease of 8.3% year-on-year, with construction-related investments expected to decline significantly [3][56] - The report highlights that the construction investment component is expected to be 4.4 trillion yuan, down 10.7%, while other expenses, primarily driven by land acquisition costs, are projected at 3.4 trillion yuan, down 4.9% [57][58] - The overall investment landscape reflects a cautious recovery, with a focus on stabilizing financing conditions and improving operational efficiency within the industry [22][57]