银河期货航运日报-20251125

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is pessimistic about the subsequent freight rate height. Some shipping companies have lowered their spot quotes for the first half of December, which led to a significant decline in the EC futures market on November 25. The freight rate landing expectations are still controversial. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and waiting for a pullback to buy the 2 - 4 positive spreads in batches for arbitrage [7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - Futures Market Performance - On November 25, EC2512 closed at 1650 points, down 7.29% from the previous day's close. Other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline. The trading volume of most contracts increased significantly, while the open interest of some contracts changed differently. For example, the trading volume of EC2512 increased by 346.72%, and its open interest decreased by 5.95% [5]. - The month - spread structure also changed. For instance, the EC12 - EC02 spread was 197, down 14.6 [5]. - Container Freight Rates - The SCFIS European Line index was 1639.37, up 20.75% week - on - week but down 42.71% year - on - year. Different container freight rates showed different trends. For example, the SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa freight rate was 3557 USD/TEU, down 11.81% week - on - week and 21.76% year - on - year [5]. - Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Analysis: Some shipping companies, such as MSK, lowered their quotes, which affected market sentiment. The latest SCFIS European Line index was higher than expected due to previous delays, skipped sailings, and differences in mainstream shipping company quotes. The demand in November - December is expected to gradually improve. The supply of shipping capacity in November and January 2026 changed little, while the capacity in December decreased slightly by about 4% due to the additional suspension of one ship by the OA Alliance and MSC's ship - changing strategy. Geopolitical factors also affected the market, with MSK not resuming flights in the short term [7][8]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, due to the controversial landing expectations, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. For arbitrage, wait for a pullback and then buy the 2 - 4 positive spreads in batches [9]. - Industry News - On November 24, Goldman Sachs economists expected the Fed to cut interest rates in December, warning that the US economic slowdown might exceed expectations [10]. II. Relevant Attachments - There are multiple figures showing the trends of various container freight indices, such as the SCFIS European Line index, SCFIS US West Line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates from Shanghai to different regions like the US West, US East, Europe, etc. [11][12][14]