金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20251125

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the PTA and Ethylene Glycol Daily by Goldtrust Futures Research Institute, dated November 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: PTA Market Analysis Market Performance - On November 25, the PTA主力期货合约TA2601 fell 0.30%, and the basis strengthened to -39 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Information - The market price of PTA in East China today is 4635 yuan/ton, with the cost - side crude oil price stabilizing after a decline. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 71.17%. The weekly PTA factory inventory days are 3.81 days, a decrease of 0.16 days compared to the previous period. The PTA processing fee has recovered to over 200 yuan/ton [3] Main Force Movements - The long - side main force reduced positions [3] Market Expectations - Recently, PTA supply has decreased significantly, and India's BIS cancellation has boosted export demand, leading to a small - scale de - stocking of PTA. Downstream polyester start - up may gradually weaken, and the long - term supply remains in excess. In the short term, the PTA market is expected to continue to fluctuate following the cost side [3] Group 3: Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Market Analysis Market Performance - On November 25, the ethylene glycol主力期货合约 eg2601 rose 0.49%, and the basis weakened to 21 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Information - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today is 3918 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The cost - side crude oil price stabilized after a decline, and the production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in a loss. The weekly inventory of MEG ports in East China totaled 63.3 tons, an increase of 1.5 tons compared to the previous period [4] Main Force Movements - There is a divergence between long and short main forces [4] Market Expectations - Recently, ethylene glycol inventory has been continuously rising, and although the inventory accumulation rate has decreased, the expectation has not been reversed. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production and conduct maintenance, alleviating the supply - side pressure of ethylene glycol. It is reported that a 3.3 - million - ton plant in Iran has recently shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. Downstream polyester start - up remains stable but has entered the consumption off - season. Under the expectation of both supply and demand reduction, the market may continue to maintain a volatile pattern [4]