震荡运行：沥青日报-20251125

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The asphalt production rate decreased last week, with the production rate falling 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November decreased by 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The downstream industry's production rate was mixed, and the overall demand was weak. With the influence of factors such as crude oil price decline, it is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Supply Side: Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. The expected production in November was 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons month - on - month (16.9%) and 27.4 million tons year - on - year (11.0%). This week, some refineries will stably produce asphalt, and the production rate will increase [1]. - Demand Side: The downstream industry's production rate was mixed last week. The road asphalt production rate remained flat at 34% due to capital and weather constraints. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the subsequent demand will further weaken. The project increment in the south is limited, and the overall demand is flat [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week - on - week and was near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Price: Crude oil prices fell. The basis of asphalt in Shandong remained at a neutral level, and the market was cautious. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 1.19% to 3068 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3045 yuan/ton, the highest was 3074 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 7249 to 153,792 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to - 38 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply Side: Some refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical stopped producing asphalt. The asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years [4]. - Demand - related Data: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative investment in fixed assets of the road transport industry decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. As of the week of November 21, the downstream industry's production rate was mixed, and the road asphalt production rate remained flat at 34% due to capital and weather constraints. From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 21, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% compared with the week of November 14, near the lowest level in recent years [4]