棉花、棉纱日报-20251125

Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts are 13585, 13530, 13665, 20075, 19860, and 20020 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 125, 85, 55, 350, 180, and -55. The trading volumes and open interests also show various changes [2]. - Spot prices: CCIndex3128B is 14793 yuan/ton with a change of 2, Cot A is 74.00 cents/pound, and other spot prices like those of polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc., also have their respective values and changes [2]. - Price spreads: Cotton and棉纱跨期 spreads, as well as跨品种 and内外 spreads, are presented with their corresponding values and price changes [2]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - Purchase prices: From November 17 - 23, the average purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.05 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous week and 0.18 yuan/kg year - on - year; hand - picked cotton was 6.69 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week and 0.07 yuan/kg year - on - year. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton was relatively stable at 6.75 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of November 23, 1044 cotton processing enterprises had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 369.5 million tons [4]. - US cotton harvest: As of November 23, the cotton harvest rate in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 79%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average. The harvest in Texas and other major producing areas is progressing orderly, and the low - temperature and less - rainy weather is beneficial for the harvest and improves the processing and inspection quality [4]. - Price quotes: The 2025/26 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30B/with impurity within 3 has a one - price quote of 14600 - 14800, and the same - quality point - price basis is mostly above CF01 + 1100, with a small amount in the 1050 - 1100 range for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. Some 2025/26 north Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/28B/with impurity within 2.5 had a transaction basis of CF01 + 950 - 1000 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [5]. Trading Logic - Fundamental analysis: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, after the peak season, the market enters a relatively off - season. Overall, with new cotton flooding the market and a large increase in production but a potentially smaller - than - expected increase, and with average recent orders but previous negative factors already reflected in the market, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a limited range [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The future trend of US cotton is likely to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate [7]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7][9]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Market conditions: Yesterday, Zhengzhou cotton strengthened significantly, and cotton yarn futures followed with a larger increase, boosting the atmosphere. However, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has weakened, with fewer new orders and mainly downstream rigid - demand purchases. High - count yarns have maintained good sales, with stable prices, while other yarn varieties have seen stable - to - decreasing prices, with some manufacturers reducing prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The overall situation of traceability orders has changed little, but due to the deterioration of Sino - Japanese relations, the confidence of exporters to Japan has declined, and they are more cautious. The future trend of Zhengzhou cotton, downstream replenishment in mid - to - late December, and the international situation need to be monitored [9]. - Fabric market: The all - cotton clothing grey fabric market remains sluggish, with inventory levels still rising. Conventional varieties face fierce homogeneous competition due to poor demand, and some differentiated varieties also have low demand. In the export market, there is a significant shortage of terminal orders, and competition among grey fabric mills is intense. It is expected that this week will continue the sluggish situation of last week, and the inventory of weaving mills will continue to increase [9]. Group 3: Options - Option data: The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities, and other parameters of options such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC are presented. The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 are 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [11]. - Option strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13]. Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures: The report includes figures such as the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][18][22][23].