主要品种策略早餐-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to enter a high - level oscillation phase, with multiple long and short factors at play. The Fed's expectations boost copper prices, but uncertainties bring potential risks. The supply - side disturbances and structural support from the new energy sector provide bottom - line resilience [1][2]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. Overseas supply shortages and low inventory levels will continue to provide support, while the domestic off - season demand restricts the upward price space. The zinc market may present mainly structural opportunities [3][4]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range. Although the inventory is at a high level, the firmness of polysilicon boosts the price of industrial silicon [5]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to remain high in the short term and fluctuate within a range in the medium term. The implementation of new energy - consumption standards will improve the supply - demand pattern [6]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain high in the short term and rise with oscillations in the medium term, despite high supply and inventory pressures [8]. - Refined tin prices are expected to remain high. Global tin ore supply shortages and low domestic processing fees provide support for tin prices [9][10]. Summary by Variety Copper - Macro: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, and the probability of a December rate cut has increased again due to dovish remarks [1]. - Supply: Global copper concentrate supply is tight, but long - term pressure may ease. Domestic smelters are in losses, leading to production restrictions. Overseas supply remains tight [1]. - Demand: Domestic copper product start - up rates have rebounded, with strong exports, but domestic demand is divided. New energy vehicles support copper demand, while high prices suppress downstream purchasing [1]. - Inventory: Global visible inventories show a differentiated trend, with LME inventories down 43% year - on - year and COMEX inventories up 3.5 times [1]. - View and Strategy: Intraday and medium - term views are both oscillatory, with an oscillatory operation strategy [1]. Zinc - Macro: Fed rate - cut expectations are divided, and the probability of a December rate cut has decreased. The US government shutdown risk has eased, but the impact on zinc prices is limited [3]. - Supply: Global zinc concentrate supply is tightening, with falling processing fees. Domestic imports have decreased, and domestic mine supply is also tightening [3]. - Demand: The pattern is "strong overseas, weak domestic". Galvanized sheet exports support zinc prices, while domestic demand improvement is limited [3]. - Inventory: LME zinc inventory is at a historically low level, while domestic inventory is higher than last year [3]. - View and Strategy: Intraday and medium - term views are both oscillatory, with an oscillatory operation strategy and a strategy of selling wide - straddle option combinations [3]. Industrial Silicon - Supply: In October, China's industrial silicon output was 452,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.75% [5]. - Demand: In October, polysilicon output was 134,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [5]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the social inventory of industrial silicon was 548,000 tons, at a seven - year high [5]. - View and Strategy: Short - term view is range - bound (8,900 - 9,000), medium - term view is also range - bound (8,800 - 9,300), with a bullish strategy [5]. Polysilicon - Supply: In October, polysilicon output was 134,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [6]. - Demand: In October, China's silicon wafer output was 60.5GW, a year - on - year increase of 31.36% [6]. - Inventory: As of November 13, the social inventory of polysilicon was 271,000 tons and is still accumulating [6]. - Policy Impact: New energy - consumption standards will reduce effective domestic polysilicon production capacity, improving the supply - demand pattern [6]. - View and Strategy: Short - term view is high - level operation (53,000 - 54,000), medium - term view is range - bound (50,000 - 60,000), with a bullish strategy [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot Price: On November 24, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) dropped 270 yuan to 92,100 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 5,920 yuan in the past 5 days and 19,030 yuan in the past 30 days [8]. - Supply: In October 2025, China's battery - grade lithium carbonate output was 68,360 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67% [8]. - Inventory: As of October 31, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 84,234 tons, still at a high level [8]. - News Impact: News of a lithium mine's potential复产 led to a limit - down in lithium carbonate futures on November 21 [8]. - View and Strategy: Short - term view is high - level operation (90,000 - 92,000), medium - term view is oscillatory upward (80,000 - 100,000), with a bullish strategy [8]. Refined Tin - Supply: Myanmar's Wa State's resumption of production is difficult, and Indonesia is cracking down on illegal tin mining, intensifying global tin ore supply shortages [9]. - Processing Fee: As of November 24, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Jiangxi was 8,000 yuan/ton, at a low level [10]. - Inventory: As of November 24, the SHFE tin inventory was 5,884 tons [10]. - View and Strategy: Short - and medium - term views are high - level operation (280,000 - 300,000), with a strategy of selling SN2601 - P - 260000 [9][10].