国投期货软商品日报-20251125

Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, same as sugar, short - term balance and low operability [1] - Timber: ★★★, clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, bullish bias with limited market operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★, clear upward trend and appropriate investment chance [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and low operability [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends, affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and production conditions. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific situations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton has risen for two consecutive days, and the spot sales basis is stable. New cotton cost supports the price but also limits its height, with short - term range - bound trading likely. Despite large new cotton production increase, low commercial inventory and fast sales support the price. As of November 20, 4631000 tons of lint cotton were processed nationwide, up 812000 tons year - on - year. As of November 15, commercial cotton inventory was 3639700 tons, down 204300 tons year - on - year. The cotton yarn market has weak trading, with less new orders for spinning mills and lower开机 rates. High - count yarn has firm prices and better trading. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the cane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increased sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss in sugar production, keeping the output high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are starting to crush, and with good weather, sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is weak. In October, syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were large, putting pressure on the supply side. The market's focus is shifting to the next season's production estimate. With good rainfall in Guangxi in the third quarter and an increase in the sugarcane vegetation index, the 25/26 season's sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price is strong. In the spot market, small and medium - sized apples are mainly traded in Shandong, and other varieties have less trading. In the Northwest, merchants are packaging their own apples for the market, and the mainstream price is stable. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 7.33 million tons, down 12.73% year - on - year. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. Due to poor apple quality and high purchase prices, there is strong reluctance to sell among traders and farmers, which may affect the de - stocking speed. The future de - stocking situation is the main trading point, and there are increasing differences between bulls and bears. It is necessary to monitor the de - stocking situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU), 20 - rubber (NR), and butadiene rubber (BR) all declined. Domestic natural rubber is stable with a slight decline, synthetic rubber spot prices are stable, the overseas butadiene tower - mouth price has risen, and the Thai raw material market price has fallen. Currently, global natural rubber supply is at a high level, but China's Yunnan production area is gradually entering the non - tapping season. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise, with some plants restarting or under maintenance. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate also increased. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate decreased due to some tire companies' maintenance, and Shandong tire companies' finished - product inventory continued to increase. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 468900 tons, and last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 17000 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory increased significantly to 39800 tons. Overall, demand is weakening, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, inventory is rising, cost support is stable, the external environment is deteriorating, and market sentiment is cautious. The strategy is to be bullish on RU, wait and see on NR and BR, and look for cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for NR and BR [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures declined slightly. The spot price of coniferous pulp is 5300 yuan/ton for Moon and 5170 yuan/ton for Russian coniferous pulp in the Yangtze River Delta. The price of broad - leaf pulp is 4400 yuan/ton for Goldfish. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports is 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% month - on - month increase, with two consecutive weeks of significant inventory accumulation. The continuous increase in domestic import inventory and weak demand continue, with low downstream purchasing enthusiasm. After the previous increase, the basis has narrowed significantly. Due to the overall weak fundamentals, the price has continued to decline after the basis convergence. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuates. In the spot market, the mainstream price is stable. The overseas price is still high, and the domestic spot price is weak, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and domestic supply will remain low. The port outbound volume is above 60000 cubic meters, and demand supports the price. Log inventory is low, with relatively small inventory pressure. Low inventory supports the price to some extent, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]