Hopewind(SH:603063) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-25 11:28Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 25, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liao Chenyue [1] - Investment Advisory License Number: Z0022951 [1] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Market Review - The stock index showed strong performance today. The CSI 300 Index closed up 0.95%. [2] - The trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 84.374 billion yuan. [2] - Among stock index futures, IC rose with increasing volume, while the rest rose with decreasing volume. [2] Group 3: Important Information - Chinese President had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing that "cooperation benefits both, while confrontation hurts both" and highlighting the importance of Taiwan's return to China in the post - war international order. The two leaders also discussed the Ukraine crisis. [3] - Waller, a Fed governor and a leading candidate for Fed Chair, is mainly worried about the labor market and advocates a rate cut in December. Daly, the former San Francisco Fed President who usually followed Powell, also supports a December rate cut due to concerns about a sudden deterioration in the labor market. [3] - Japan plans to deploy offensive weapons on the south - western islands near Taiwan. China's Foreign Ministry responded that this move is extremely dangerous and requires high - level vigilance. [3] Group 4: Core View - Fed officials' dovish remarks last night increased the probability of a December rate cut to over 80%, supporting the repair of the stock index valuation. The positive signals from the China - US call also restored market risk appetite, leading to a higher - opening and higher - closing stock index today. [4] - However, the Sino - Japanese issue remains unresolved. Although the trading volume of the two markets increased slightly, it was still below 2 trillion yuan, and the collective deepening of the discount of stock index futures indicates cautious market sentiment. [4] - In the short term, the stock index is expected to be strong driven by the expectation of loose liquidity and gradually fill the previous gap. Future trends depend on external changes. If Sino - Japanese relations ease and the US PCE price index meets or is lower than market expectations, the stock index may continue to strengthen; otherwise, it is expected to continue to fluctuate after a phased rebound. [4] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see. [4] Group 6: Stock Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.66 | 0.35 | 0.85 | 0.85 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 10.8933 | 4.3866 | 13.4717 | 21.3192 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | - 0.4758 | - 0.0889 | 0.2797 | - 1.0643 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.4574 | 8.8482 | 25.8131 | 36.7936 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | - 0.3977 | - 0.0977 | 0.5282 | - 0.9256 | [4] Group 7: Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.87 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.53 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 4.33 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 1812.147 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | 84.374 | [6]