银河期货白糖日报-20251125

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Report Date: November 25, 2025 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are expected to bottom out and fluctuate slightly higher in the short term due to a significant decline in Brazil's sugar - making ratio. In the domestic market, although there is pressure from higher - than - expected imported sugar volume and sugar mill openings, considering the high production cost of domestic white sugar and the current low price, the downward space is limited. It is recommended to build long positions at low levels in the short term, conduct a long - January and short - May arbitrage, and sell put options at low levels [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,336 with no change; SR01 closed at 5,387, up 17 (0.32%); SR05 closed at 5,325, up 6 (0.11%). The trading volume of SR01 decreased by 40,608 to 135,377, and the open interest decreased by 11,410 to 406,329. The trading volume of SR05 decreased by 17,810 to 28,811, and the open interest increased by 267 to 179,388. The trading volume of SR09 increased by 755 to 3,672, and the open interest increased by 469 to 18,875 [6]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, and other regions remained unchanged. The basis in Liuzhou was 228, in Kunming was 113, and in Wuhan was 573 [6]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 62, down 11; the SR09 - SR05 spread was 11, down 6; the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 51, down 17 [6]. - Import Profit: The quota - free price for Brazilian imports was 5,156, with a spread of 459 compared to Liuzhou and 644 compared to Rizhao. The quota - free price for Thai imports was 5,220, with a spread of 395 compared to Liuzhou and 580 compared to Rizhao [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Important Information: In the third week of November, Brazil exported 256.37 million tons of sugar and molasses, a year - on - year increase of 73.03 million tons (39.83%). As of November 23, 2025/26, 154 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 34 more than the same period last season. As of November 25, 19 sugar mills in Guangxi had started crushing, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily crushing capacity of about 142,000 tons, a decrease of 264,500 tons [8][9]. - Logical Analysis: Globally, the production increase in major sugar - producing areas is being realized. Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast. Brazil's sugar production may be lower than expected as the sugar - making ratio has decreased, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. In the domestic market, although the supply and sales pressure will gradually increase due to the start of sugar mills, factors such as tightened imports of syrups and premixes and high production costs provide some support for the futures price [12]. - Trading Strategy: - Single Side: Consider building long positions at low levels in the short term. - Arbitrage: Go long on the January contract and short on the May contract. - Options: Sell put options at low levels [13][14]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report includes multiple graphs showing data such as Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly inventory, sales - to - production ratio, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, and various price spreads [15][19][23].