Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-25 11:38Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The economic growth rate in October continued the slowdown trend in the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, with structural tools being the main means of policy implementation in the next stage. The scope for further monetary easing this year is limited. - The bond market currently maintains a volatile pattern with a ceiling and a floor, awaiting directional guidance from uncertain factors such as new fund regulations and the central bank's treasury bond trading volume. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Closing Prices and Volume: T主力收盘价108.220，较前一日下跌0.08%，成交量减少17030；TF主力收盘价105.980，持平，成交量减少9985；TS主力收盘价102.422，上涨0.01%，成交量减少12243；TL主力收盘价115.160，下跌0.33%，成交量减少19784。[2] - Futures Spreads: Multiple spreads showed changes, such as the TL2512 - 2603 spread decreasing by 0.02 to 0.16, and the T12 - TL12 spread increasing by 0.30 to -6.96. [2] - Futures Positions: Most of the major contract positions decreased, while the net short positions of some contracts changed. For example, the T主力持仓量 decreased by 28531 to 40332. [2] 3.2 CTD and Bond Yields - CTD Net Prices: The net prices of most CTD bonds decreased, except for 250017.IB and 220022.IB which increased slightly. [2] - Bond Yields: The yields of 1 - 5 and 10 - year active bonds mostly increased, while the 7 - year bond yield decreased by 0.40bp. [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 0.09bp to 1.3009%, while the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 1.40bp to 1.4330%. [2] - LPR Rates: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan MLF operation on November 25. With 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing in November, the net MLF injection was 100 billion yuan, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased roll - overs. [2] 3.5 Industry News - An official press conference on consumer - related policies will be held on November 27. - China's full - industry outward direct investment in the first three quarters of this year was 923.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. - The central bank carried out a 1 - trillion - yuan MLF operation on November 25, showing a moderately loose monetary policy orientation. [2] 3.6 Market Performance and Economic Situation - On Tuesday, most of the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened, and the treasury bond futures showed a pattern of short - term strength and medium - to - long - term weakness. - Domestically, economic indicators in October showed a slowdown, with weak loan demand, a decline in export growth, and a slowdown in deposit activation. - Overseas, the US labor data showed contradictions, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is rising. [2]