原油短期上扬中长期下行风险隐现

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices may remain volatile in the short term but face downward risks in the medium to long term The overall supply - demand imbalance in the industry persists, with supply likely to exceed demand If the supply increment continues to be released, prices may be pressured downward [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contracts and Basis: As of November 24, 2025, the prices of crude oil main contracts rose slightly. SC crude oil futures were reported at 447.9 yuan/barrel, up 0.5 yuan (0.11% increase) from 447.4 yuan/barrel on November 21; WTI crude oil futures were at 58.89 dollars/barrel, up 0.91 dollars (1.57% increase); Brent crude oil futures were at 62.75 dollars/barrel, up 0.86 dollars (1.39% increase) [2] - Spreads: SC - Brent spread was 0.28 dollars/barrel, down 0.75 dollars (72.82% decrease); SC - WTI spread was 4.14 dollars/barrel, down 0.8 dollars (16.19% decrease); Brent - WTI spread was 3.86 dollars/barrel, down 0.05 dollars (1.28% decrease); SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread was - 4.0 yuan/barrel, down 2.2 yuan (122.22% decrease), indicating a significant weakening of the spread and a relative weakening of near - month contracts [2] 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: Information shows potential supply increases. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company announced the establishment of a new company to manage the Ghasha gas field, with an expected daily production of 1.8 billion standard cubic feet of natural gas and 150,000 barrels of oil and condensate; Suriname opened 60% of its offshore oil and gas exploration areas; Russia's Tuapse refinery resumed oil processing on November 21; Abu Dhabi National Oil Company increased its oil reserves by 7 billion barrels to a total of 120 billion barrels Geopolitical factors may affect supply stability [3] - Demand Side: Demand signals are divided. The US Secretary of Commerce mentioned raising diesel prices with the EU, suggesting stronger refined oil demand; Indonesia's state - owned oil company sold 100,000 barrels of gasoline to VIVO However, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased by 14.1% - 20.5% month - on - month, and the decline in external markets such as crude oil futures may drag down overall energy demand; Russia's oil and gas revenues in November are expected to decline by 35% year - on - year, and Oman's fiscal revenue from January - September decreased by 8% due to reduced oil revenues [4] - Inventory Side: There is a lack of direct inventory indicators, but indirect evidence points to pressure. The decline in Russia's oil and gas revenues and Oman's fiscal revenue implies high inventory or oversupply; Indonesia's auction of a sanctioned oil tanker may reflect the disposal of excess crude oil inventory The risk of overall supply - demand imbalance has increased [5][6] 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices may remain volatile in the short term but face downward risks in the medium to long term In the short term, the price increase on November 24 was due to supply - side events and partial demand - side support, but the widespread weakening of spreads shows market concerns about supply - demand balance The continuous expansion of supply may exacerbate oversupply, while the divided demand signals indicate unstable global demand Indirect inventory signals strengthen the expectation of oversupply [7] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Futures Prices: SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil futures prices rose on November 24 compared to November 21, while the OPEC basket price remained unchanged - Spot Prices: The spot prices of some crude oil varieties such as Shengli, Dubai, ESPO, and Duri decreased - Spreads: All spreads, including SC - Brent, SC - WTI, Brent - WTI, and SC continuous - consecutive 3, showed a weakening trend - Other Assets: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and US strategic reserve inventory increased, while the RMB exchange rate remained stable The US commercial crude oil inventory and Cushing inventory decreased, and the API inventory increased The US refinery's weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [8] 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - Futures Prices: The price of FU fuel oil futures rose, while the prices of LU and NYMEX fuel oil futures decreased Some prices in IF0380, MDO, MGO, etc. remained unchanged - Spot Prices: Most spot prices remained stable, with only slight increases in the FOB prices of marine 180CST and 380CST in Singapore and a decrease in the CIF price of Russian M100 - Paper Prices: The paper prices of high - sulfur 180 and 380 in Singapore's near - month contracts increased slightly - Spreads: Spreads such as Singapore's high - low sulfur spread, China's high - low sulfur spread, LU - Singapore FOB(0.5%S), and FU - Singapore 380CST all changed to varying degrees - Platts and Inventory: The Platts prices of 380CST and 180CST decreased, and the Singapore inventory decreased Some US distillate inventory data were not updated [9] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - On November 24, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company will establish a new company to manage the Ghasha acid gas field, with an expected daily production of 1.8 billion standard cubic feet of natural gas and 150,000 barrels of oil and condensate; Suriname opened 60% of its offshore oil and gas exploration areas; Syria received nearly 1 million barrels of crude oil from Saudi Arabia [10][11] 3.3.2 Demand - Russia's Tuapse refinery resumed oil processing on November 21; the US Secretary of Commerce mentioned raising diesel prices with the EU; Indonesia's state - owned oil company sold 100,000 barrels of gasoline to VIVO [12] 3.3.3 Inventory - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's board of directors will increase oil reserves by 7 billion barrels, bringing the total to 120 billion barrels [13] 3.3.4 Market Information - On November 24, Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, clarifying China's principled stance on the Taiwan issue; the US may directly dialogue with Venezuelan President Maduro; at the close, Shanghai gold, silver, and SC crude oil main contracts all rose; Oman's fiscal revenue from January - September decreased by 8% due to reduced oil revenues; Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company's revenue increased by 11% year - on - year in the first nine months; Russia's oil and gas revenues in November are expected to decline by 35% year - on - year; Indonesia is auctioning a sanctioned supertanker and its crude oil; Malaysia's palm oil futures may decline due to negative fundamentals and lower external markets [14][15] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts related to the oil industry, such as the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US weekly crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, etc [16][18][20]