银河期货煤炭日报-20251125

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Coal Daily Report, November 25, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [6][9] Group 2: Market Review - Spot Market: On November 25, port market thermal coal quotes showed signs of weakness. 5500 kcal coal was quoted at 830 - 840 yuan/ton, 5000 kcal at 730 - 740 yuan/ton, and 4500 kcal at 630 - 640 yuan/ton. Different regions had varying non - power enterprise coal prices [2]. Group 3: Important News - National Railway Freight: From January to October this year, national railways cumulatively transported 3.378 billion tons of goods, a 3% year - on - year increase, reaching a record high for the same period. The average daily loading was 186,000 cars, a 4% year - on - year increase [3]. Group 4: Logical Analysis Supply - Domestic Supply: As of November 23, the coal mine start - up rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin it was 46%. The daily coal output of the two cities was over 4 million tons, and the domestic supply was becoming more abundant [4]. - Import: Chinese procurement demand weakened, while international coal prices continued to rise. Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry lowered the coal production target to 700 million tons, but the actual implementation still depends on Chinese demand [4]. Demand - General Demand: This week, demand was mediocre. Chinese procurement demand weakened, while that of Japan and South Korea was average, and India's procurement demand showed no improvement. Heating load growth did not meet expectations, and power plant daily consumption increased slowly, with power plant loads generally operating in the 60% - 70% range [4]. - Coal Procurement: Power plants mainly pulled long - term contract supplies, with extremely limited demand for market coal. They had a very low acceptance of high - priced coal and strong willingness to bargain, leading to a stalemate in market transactions [4]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Railway transportation returned to normal. The average daily transport volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved trains by Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 30. Port inventory remained stable, with the inventory of Bohai Rim ports at 24.85 million tons as of November 25, at a neutral level in recent years [4]. - Power Plant Inventory: Coastal power plant daily consumption was low, but inventory continued to decline. Inland power plant inventory was at a neutral level [4]. Price Forecast - Overall: In late November, coal production in major producing areas was low. Power plant inventory continued to decline, and import profits were available. Coastal power plants increased procurement. Port inventory fluctuated within a range. It is expected that coal prices will be weak in the short term [4]. Group 5: Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the inventory and daily consumption data of various ports and power plants from 2022 to 2025, including national ports, Bohai Rim ports, downstream ports, etc. [7][8]