专题报告：辨析中国长债利率决定中的国际因素

Group 1: International Factors Impacting Chinese Long Bond Rates - International factors are increasingly influential in determining China's long bond rates, especially under more open economic conditions[3] - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) identifies a shift in global liquidity dynamics, with non-bank financial institutions becoming the main players in international capital flows since 2008[10] - The BIS financial condition index (FCI) highlights two key factors: the "level factor" reflecting interest rates and the "risk factor" indicating market risk perceptions[11] Group 2: Recent Trends and Implications - Since 2021, the BIS's "level factor" has risen sharply due to inflation and tightening U.S. monetary policy, indicating a significant tightening of financial conditions[12] - The "risk factor" has shown slight tightening since 2021, impacting China's economic conditions, but this effect is expected to ease as major central banks begin lowering interest rates in Q4 2024[12] - A strong U.S. dollar has a negative correlation with China's 10-year government bond yields, with a correlation coefficient of -0.89 from January 2014 to September 2025, indicating that dollar strength significantly influences bond rates[15]