Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. Prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short term, but may see a marginal inflection point with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [2] - Iron ore has a high overall inventory but structural contradictions, with spot having some support. It is expected to operate within a volatile range [5] - Ferroalloy prices have declined significantly, but there is hope for a turnaround in market sentiment in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [9] - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [13][14] - Polysilicon is caught between reality and expectations, with prices expected to fluctuate widely within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback in the industrial chain [16] - Glass prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with limited room for further decline [19] - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak operation until the glass demand shows substantial improvement [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.550%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3309 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.424%), and the spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai also increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory continuously decreasing, presenting a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have a continuous recovery in terminal demand, but high inventory levels [2] - South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will affect steel exports to some extent [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 794.00 yuan/ton, up 0.44% (+3.50). The weighted position was 92.57 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 49.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.87% [4] Strategy Viewpoints - Overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period, with reductions from Australia and Brazil. The shipments of the four major mines all declined. Non - mainstream country shipments reached a high for the year, and the near - end arrivals increased [5] - The average daily hot - metal output decreased, with more blast furnace overhauls than restarts due to weak downstream demand and poor profits. The steel mill profitability rate continued to decline [5] - Port inventories decreased slightly, and steel mill inventories were consumed. There is a structural contradiction in iron ore, and the spot has some support [5] Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Market Information - On November 25, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.11% at 5636 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 204 yuan/ton over the futures [7] - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed down 0.15% at 5448 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5400 yuan/ton, with a discount of 48 yuan/ton to the futures [8] Strategy Viewpoints - Ferroalloy prices declined significantly due to weak market sentiment, cost - side pressure on coal, and a macro - policy window period. However, market expectations for a December interest - rate cut have risen, and the decline in coking coal prices may end [9] - It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price inflection points, and be cautious about overseas sentiment fluctuations [9] - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. Ferrosilicon has no obvious supply - demand contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8960 yuan/ton, up 0.22% (+20). The weighted contract position increased by 3092 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged [12] - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 54730 yuan/ton, up 2.65% (+1415). The weighted contract position increased by 3595 hands. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged [15] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon production decreased, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon showed different trends. The cost side provides support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14] - Polysilicon production is decreasing, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. However, prices are under pressure in the short term and are expected to fluctuate widely within a range [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1014 yuan/ton, up 0.10% (+1). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million cases (0.09%). The long and short positions of the top 20 holders decreased [18] - The soda ash main contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (-10). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons (0.09%), with decreases in both heavy and light soda ash inventories. The long positions of the top 20 holders decreased, and the short positions increased [20] Strategy Viewpoints - The expectation of cold - repair of glass production lines in December is increasing, with insufficient downstream demand and weakening price expectations. Glass prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [19] - Soda ash supply exceeds demand, with differentiated demand. High inventory and weak demand are the main negative drivers, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation [21]
2025-11-26：黑色建材日报-20251126
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-26 00:51