海外冲击减弱，?险偏好或有所回升

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias", "Oscillating", and "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" respectively [7][8][9] Core Viewpoints - Overseas shocks are weakening, and risk appetite may recover. Stock index futures are showing a slight repair, stock index options are bullish on the medium - to - long - term upward trend, and risk appetite and news factors continue to disrupt the bond market [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - View: Overseas shocks are weakening, and the stock market is slightly repairing. The market logic is scattered, and it awaits event or main - line signals. Tactically, use a dumbbell configuration in the short - term and observe the layout switching window. The operation suggestion is to hold a combination of Dividend ETF and IM long positions [7] - Logic: The impact of the US stock market is easing, the Fed's voting members' views are wavering, and the probability of interest rate cuts has recovered. The US AI technology is showing a divergence, and domestic technology stocks have opened higher. The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and recovered on Tuesday, but continuous upward movement needs further catalysts [7] - Market Data: IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month basis points, inter - period spreads, and position changes are provided [7] Stock Index Options - View: The sentiment is bullish on the medium - to - long - term upward trend. Consider selling put options below or using covered call strategies on stock positions to increase returns [8] - Logic: The sentiment of the underlying market continued to recover. The trading volume of the options market was 8.102 billion yuan, with liquidity remaining stable. The decreasing volatility indicates a weakening of the hedging trend and a long - term layout of selling options. The increase in the PCR of open interest may signal a new medium - to - long - term upward channel [8] Treasury Bond Futures - View: Risk appetite and news factors continue to disrupt the bond market. The expected trend is oscillating with a bullish bias. Suggestions include trend strategies, hedging strategies, basis strategies, and curve strategies [8][9] - Logic: The central bank's net injection of 100 billion yuan through the 1 - year MLF led to a decline in capital interest rates and looser capital conditions. The short - end bonds performed better than the long - end. The long - end sentiment was weak due to the recovery of risk appetite and news factors. The stock - bond seesaw effect and the expected new regulations on fund fees affected the long - end bond futures [8] - Market Data: Trading volume, open interest, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis points of T, TF, TS, TL are provided [8] 2. Economic Calendar - The economic calendar includes data such as the US PPI annual rate, core PPI annual rate, retail sales year - on - year, GDP quarterly adjusted annualized rate, PCE price index, China's industrial enterprise profit cumulative year - on - year, and the EU's economic sentiment index [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - An official press conference will be held to introduce policies to enhance the matching of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption [11] - From January to October 2025, China's full - scale foreign direct investment reached 1.03323 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7% (144.34 billion US dollars, a 6.2% increase). Non - financial direct investment was 872.6 billion yuan, a 6% increase (121.9 billion US dollars, a 5.2% increase) [11] - The National Space Administration issued an action plan for the high - quality and safe development of commercial space from 2025 - 2027, aiming to achieve high - quality development by 2027 [11] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes data monitoring on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [12][16][28]