乐观情绪有所升温，基本金属止跌回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the mid - term outlooks include "oscillating and bullish" for copper, aluminum, aluminum alloy, lead, tin; "oscillating" for zinc, nickel, stainless steel; and "oscillating with pressure" for alumina [6][10][12][18][24][15][20][23][8]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall Base Metals: Optimistic sentiment has increased, causing base metals to stop falling and rebound. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions support prices, and a positive macro - environment drives prices up. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin suggest a positive outlook for their prices [1]. - Individual Metals: Each metal has unique supply - demand and macro - related factors influencing its price trend. For example, copper is affected by Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum by production capacity and demand; zinc by export windows and demand seasons; and tin by supply disruptions and growing demand [6][10][17][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - Copper: Fed rate - cut expectations are volatile, causing copper prices to consolidate at high levels. The market's implied probability of a December rate cut rose from 40% to 70% after Williams' speech. In October, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month. The mid - term outlook is oscillating and bullish [6]. - Alumina: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and prices continue to face pressure. High - cost production capacity has fluctuations, and the market awaits more smelter production cuts or new ore - end disturbances. It is expected to oscillate [8]. - Aluminum: Macro - sentiment is volatile, and aluminum prices are oscillating at high levels. Domestic production capacity is high, overseas power shortages may tighten supply in the long run, and demand is stable. The short - term outlook is oscillating and bullish, and the mid - term price center may rise [10]. - Aluminum Alloy: Warehouse receipts continue to rise, and the price is oscillating at high levels. The cost is supported by tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply has potential production - cut risks, and demand is marginally improving. The short - and mid - term outlooks are oscillating and bullish [12]. - Zinc: The export window has opened, and zinc prices are oscillating at high levels. Macro - sentiment is stable but expected to be volatile. Short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and production is high. Demand is entering the off - season. In the short term, prices may fall from high - level oscillations, and there is more downside in the long term [17]. - Lead: LME lead warehousing has slowed, and lead prices may stop falling. Spot premiums are stable, supply is affected by environmental protection and maintenance, and demand is at the end of the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish [18]. - Nickel: Environmental disturbances at Indonesian MHP producers are causing nickel prices to oscillate. Global visible inventories are increasing, and the market sentiment dominates the price, with a weakening industrial fundamental [20]. - Stainless Steel: Nickel price rebounds have repaired the stainless - steel market. Cost support is weakening, production may decrease in November, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate within a range [23]. - Tin: Market sentiment has improved, and tin prices are oscillating at high levels. Supply is constrained by slow复产 in Wa State, reduced Indonesian exports, and unstable African production. Demand is growing in semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles. The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish [24]. 3.2行情监测 - Commodity Index: On November 25, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index all showed increases, with gains of 0.46%, 0.57%, 0.19%, and 0.22% respectively [150]. - Non - ferrous Metal Index: On November 25, 2025, the non - ferrous metal index had a daily increase of 0.40%, a 5 - day increase of 0.15%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.58%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.82% [151].