中国期货每日简报-20251126

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - On November 25, 2025, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; commodities were mixed with metals performing relatively strongly [2][10][13] - Gold is in a volatile range with limited upside momentum but solid downside support, and the market's core contradiction centers on the December rate - cut path [17][18] - Polysilicon supply - demand fundamentals remain under pressure, but prices are expected to maintain wide - range volatility due to dry - season output cuts and anti - involution policy expectations [22][23] - On November 24, 2025, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Donald Trump, which is of great importance to the stable development of China - US relations [27] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On November 25, 2025, in China's financial futures, IH rose by 0.35%, IM rose by 0.66%, and TL fell by 0.33%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Lithium Carbonate (up 4.5% with position volume down 6.0% month - on - month), Poly - Silicon (up 2.8% with positions increasing 0.5% month - on - month), and Silver (up 2.8% with positions rising 5.5% month - on - month). The top three decliners were SCFIS Europe Route (down 7.8% with positions up 11.4% month - on - month), Palm Oil (down 1.7% with positions increasing 0.5% month - on - month), and LSFO (down 1.3% with position volume up 0.5% month - on - month) [10][11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Gold & Silver - On November 25, 2025, Gold rose 1.5% to 946.5 yuan/g, and Silver rose 2.8% to 12127 yuan/kg. Gold is in a volatile range with "weak upside and downside drivers", and the core market contradiction is about the December rate - cut path. The lack of key data before the Fed meeting, internal Fed divisions, and dollar high - level consolidation lead to fluctuating December rate - cut expectations. Gold has limited upside but solid downside support from geopolitical risk premium, stable central bank gold purchases, and optimistic medium - term rate - cut expectations [16][17][18] 1.2.2 Poly - Silicon - On November 25, 2025, Poly - Silicon rose 2.8% to 54730 yuan/ton. From the supply side, output will contract moderately in November due to the dry season, and long - term attention should be paid to anti - involution policies. On the demand side, PV installation growth in the first half of the year exhausted downstream demand, and polysilicon demand faces downside risks starting from November. Overall, supply - demand fundamentals are under pressure, but prices are expected to maintain wide - range volatility [21][22][23] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On November 24, 2025, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Donald Trump at the latter's request. Xi clarified China's principled position on the Taiwan question. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the call was initiated by the US side, with a positive, friendly, and constructive atmosphere, which is important for the stable development of China - US relations [27]