国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space and is over - valued [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][7] - Ferrosilicon: A large number of warehouse receipts are registered, and attention should be paid to position risks [2][12] - Silicomanganese: Cost provides bottom support, wide - range oscillation [2][13] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2][16] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2][16] - Logs: Weak oscillation [2][18] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend analysis for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, based on their fundamentals and macro - industry news [2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The futures price was 794.0 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan or 0.44%. The positions decreased by 12,429 hands. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores increased slightly. The basis and spreads showed minor changes [4] - Macro - industry news: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the cumulative growth rate from January to October was 6.1% [4] - Trend strength: - 1, indicating a bearish view [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - Fundamentals: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,106 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.71%. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, it was 3,309 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 0.64%. Spot prices in some regions increased. The basis and spreads changed [7] - Macro - industry news: In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 2.5% month - on - month. In November 20th steel union weekly data, production, inventory, and apparent demand of steel products changed. In October, national steel production data showed declines in some aspects, and import and export data also changed [8][9] - Trend strength: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed. Spot prices of related products and raw materials also showed changes. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [13] - Macro - industry news: On November 25th, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported [13] - Trend strength: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [15] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,086 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan or 1.0%. For coke J2601, it was 1,643 yuan/ton, up 10.5 yuan or 0.6%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions remained stable. The basis and spreads changed [16] - Macro - industry news: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026 [16] - Trend strength: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [17] Logs - Fundamentals: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed changes. Spot prices of various types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were mostly stable, with some showing small declines [19] - Macro - industry news: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10th, 2025 [21] - Trend strength: 0, indicating a neutral view [21]