中泰期货晨会纪要-20251126

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic and political situation is complex, with multiple factors influencing various markets. The end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, US policies on AI and energy, and China's economic policies all have an impact on different industries [8][9][10]. - Different industries are in different states, with some facing supply - demand imbalances, price fluctuations, and policy - related uncertainties. For example, the steel and coal industries are affected by production policies and demand changes, while the agricultural and energy - chemical industries are influenced by factors such as weather, international relations, and seasonal demand [17][19][40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - Trump's team has made progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and an envoy will meet with Putin. Ukraine hopes for Zelensky's early visit to the US to finalize the agreement [8]. - China - US leaders' call is positive for bilateral relations. China will hold a policy briefing on promoting consumer goods consumption [8]. - Alibaba's 2026 fiscal second - quarter revenue increased by 5% year - on - year, but adjusted net profit decreased by 72%. China promotes commercial aerospace development, and a new mobile power standard is expected to be released next year [9]. - Trump launches the "Genesis Mission" to promote AI innovation. The US had a large budget deficit in October due to the government "shutdown". The selection of the Fed chairman is in the final stage [10]. - US inflation rebounded in September, and retail sales growth slowed. Local government special bonds are being issued for investment funds [11]. Macro Finance - Stock Index Futures: Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily wait and see. A - shares rebounded, but the market showed signs of weakness in the afternoon. The selection of the Fed chairman may affect the market, and the short - term decline may lead to a possible rebound, but the index's anti - fragility is insufficient [13][14]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Maintain a bullish view on the bond market. The central bank's monetary policy may be further strengthened, and attention should be paid to the central bank's bond - buying in November and exchange rate changes [15]. Black - Steel and Ore: In the short term, expect volatility or a rebound; in the medium - to - long term, maintain a bearish view on rallies. Pay attention to macro - policies and the demand and supply situation. Currently, real estate demand is weak, while some industrial demand shows improvement. Steel mills' profits are low, and inventory is relatively high [17][18]. - Coal and Coke: Prices may continue to be weakly volatile in the short term. Coal production may be affected by safety regulations and environmental factors, and the potential negative feedback from weak steel demand restricts prices [19][20]. - Ferroalloys: The silicon - iron may be a better long - term investment option compared to manganese - silicon. Currently, the silicon - iron has a stronger marginal change in fundamentals at low prices, and there is a possibility of more significant production cuts [21]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Zinc: Hold short positions at high levels. Zinc prices are in a volatile downward trend with possible rebounds, affected by macro factors and inventory changes. Domestic processing fees are falling, and downstream demand is cautious [24]. - Lead: Hold short positions cautiously. Lead prices are weakly volatile, and social inventory is decreasing due to supply shortages in some regions. Import trading is not active [25]. - Lithium Carbonate: In the short term, it will be strongly volatile. Although there are signs of weakening demand in the short term, long - term demand is still positive, attracting funds [27]. - Industrial Silicon: Continue to trade in a range. Supply and demand are in a weak balance, and the valuation is relatively low, with limited downward adjustment space [27]. - Polysilicon: Trade in a range and buy on dips. The supply - demand contradiction is weaker than the policy - expectation contradiction, and the spot price is firm [28]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: Trade in a low - level range. Supply pressure and weak demand coexist, but high costs resist price declines [30]. - Sugar: The price trend is bearish, but cost support limits the decline. Global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestic new - sugar supply is increasing [32]. - Eggs: The spot price may be weak, and the near - month futures contract is under pressure. The long - term outlook is positive due to the decline in laying - hen inventory, but the short - term supply pressure remains high [33][34]. - Apples: The price trend is strongly volatile. The acquisition season is over, and inventory and consumption will affect future prices [34][35]. - Corn: Temporarily wait and see. The current price increase is due to supply - demand mismatch, and there may be a correction in the future, but the decline space is limited [36]. - Jujubes: Temporarily wait and see. The production - area prices are stable, and the sales - area prices have increased slightly [37]. - Pigs: In the short term, the supply pressure is increasing, and the price is weakly volatile. In the long term, the decline in sow inventory is beneficial to future prices [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Consider shorting on rallies. The end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may lead to a more significant supply - demand imbalance, and the long - term price trend is downward [40]. - Fuel Oil: The price will follow the trend of crude oil. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak, and the focus is on the impact of sanctions on Russia [42]. - Plastic: Adopt a weakly volatile mindset. The supply pressure is high, but production losses may provide some support [42][43]. - Rubber: Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather. The domestic supply is decreasing, and the price is in a volatile range [44]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price is weakly volatile in the short term, and there is downward pressure in the long term [45]. - Methanol: In the near - term, adopt a weakly volatile mindset; in the long - term, wait for a rally to go long. The supply pressure is high, and the impact of imports needs to be observed [46][47]. - Caustic Soda: Adopt a volatile mindset. The spot price is weak, but low futures prices and few warehouse receipts may provide some support [48]. - Asphalt: The price fluctuation may increase. Pay attention to the end of the demand season, refinery production changes, and international oil supply [49]. - Polyester Industry Chain: The price will follow the cost trend and is expected to be weakly volatile. Although the supply - demand structure has improved marginally, the cost support is weak [50]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The short - term strength may turn weak. The supply is abundant, and the impact of the decline in oil prices needs to be considered [51]. - Paper Pulp: Enter a range - bound stage. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable, so it is recommended to wait and see [51]. - Logs: The price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in a weak balance [52]. - Urea: The spot price may be weakly volatile, and the futures market may experience short - term basis regression [53].