工业硅：关注盘面下方支撑，多晶硅：震荡偏强

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the lower support of the futures price, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [1][3]. - Polysilicon: The price is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a trend strength of 1 (slightly bullish) [1][3]. Detailed Summaries 1. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: - Industrial silicon (Si2601): The closing price was 8,960 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 248,188 lots and an open interest of 263,919 lots [1]. - Polysilicon (PS2601): The closing price was 54,730 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 235,600 lots and an open interest of 129,077 lots [1]. - Basis and Spread: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +540 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 0 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon: The near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 2,845 yuan/ton [1]. - Profit: - Industrial silicon: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 2,329.5 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new - standard 553 was - 3,576 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon: The enterprise profit was 7.7 yuan/kg [1]. - Inventory: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) was 54.8 million tons, the enterprise inventory was 17.8 million tons, and the total industry inventory was 72.6 million tons [1]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer inventory was 27.1 million tons [1]. - Raw Material Cost: - Industrial silicon: The prices of silicon ore in Xinjiang and Yunnan were 320 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively; the prices of washed coal in Xinjiang and Ningxia were 1,475 yuan/ton and 1,200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - feedstock was 52,250 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - In October 2025, the national power market trading volume was 563.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative trading volume was 5,492 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, accounting for 63.7% of the total social electricity consumption [2][3]. - The green power trading volume in October 2025 was 28.3 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 28.4%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative green power trading volume was 262.7 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 39.4% [2][3].