2025年11月26日：期货市场交易指引-20251126

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Long - term bullish with dips for buying: Index futures [1][5] - Range trading: Coking coal, rebar, copper, aluminum, tin, gold, silver, PVC, benzene ethylene, rubber, urea, cotton and cotton yarn, PTA, eggs, soybean meal [1][5][10] - Weak oscillation: Glass, polyolefins, red dates, short - term oils and fats [1][8][26] - Side - line observation or short - selling on rallies: Nickel [1][15] - Temporary observation: Treasury bonds, caustic soda, soda ash [1][5][20] - Bullish oscillation: Carbonate lithium, apples [1][18] - Near - term low - level weak adjustment, cautious chasing rallies in the far - term: Live pigs [1][33] - Waiting for rallies to hedge on the long - term: Corn [1][37] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market outlooks for various futures products across multiple industries. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, supply - demand relationships, geopolitical events, and policy expectations to analyze the market trends of each product. For example, in the macro - financial sector, index futures may oscillate due to factors like inflation, retail sales, and Fed policy expectations; in the energy - chemical sector, products are affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - political factors [5][18][20]. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Index Futures: May oscillate in the short - term due to factors like US inflation, retail sales, and Fed policy expectations. Long - term bullish, recommend buying on dips [5] - Treasury Bonds: Likely to oscillate. Short - term trading depends on news, economic data, and policy expectations, while the long - term needs clear signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Range trading. The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand [7] - Rebar: Range trading. Low valuation and weak drivers may lead to low - level oscillation [7] - Glass: Expected to continue weakening. Cold - repair rumors have boosted far - month contracts, but actual production cuts are rare, and inventory issues remain severe [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: High - level oscillation. Geopolitical factors in Congo (Kinshasa) and market consumption trends affect the price. Suggest short - term range trading [10] - Aluminum: Oscillate. Factors such as bauxite prices, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production, and demand influence the market [12] - Nickel: Oscillate. Supply may be abundant in the future, recommend side - line observation or short - selling on rallies [16] - Tin: Oscillate. Supply is expected to improve, and attention should be paid to overseas supply and downstream demand [16] - Gold and Silver: Oscillate. Affected by US economic data, Fed policy, and market expectations of interest rate cuts [17] - Carbonate Lithium: Bullish oscillation. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to mine production and demand from the energy storage sector [18] Energy - Chemical - PVC: Oscillate weakly. High supply, weak demand, and uncertain export growth pose challenges [18] - Caustic Soda: Oscillate. Valuation is suppressed by alumina production cuts, and attention should be paid to policy expectations [20] - Benzene Ethylene: Oscillate. Affected by factors such as oil prices, pure benzene supply, and macro - data [22] - Rubber: Oscillate. Supply and demand factors, such as production season and inventory, lead to range - bound prices [22] - Urea: Oscillate. Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by agricultural and industrial needs [24] - Methanol: Oscillate. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating [25] - Polyolefins: Weakly oscillate. Cost pressure, supply - demand relationships, and inventory trends affect the market [27] - Soda Ash: Temporarily observe. Supply is excessive, but cost support may limit the downside [29] Cotton - spinning Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillate. Global supply - demand data is relatively loose, but strong yarn prices may drive a rebound [29] - PTA: Low - level oscillation. Affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships [30][31] - Apples: Bullish oscillation. Market trading is relatively stable [31] - Red Dates: Weakly oscillate. Acquisition progress varies by region, and enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is average [32] Agricultural and Livestock - Live Pigs: Near - term prices are under pressure, and long - term prices are cautiously bullish. Supply pressure persists in the short - term, and capacity reduction is ongoing in the long - term [33] - Eggs: Range - bound with limited upside. Supply is gradually improving, and demand is being supported [36] - Corn: May rebound. Short - term supply pressure is relieved, but long - term supply - demand is relatively loose [37][38] - Soybean Meal: Range - bound. Affected by US soybean prices, supply, and demand [38] - Oils and Fats: Weakly adjust in the short - term. Affected by factors such as palm oil production, soybean exports, and biodiesel policies [39][45]