Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-26 01:56Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Indexes are expected to stabilize in the short - term after recent declines. In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and technology growth remains the market's main line, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market in the fourth quarter may see an improved supply - demand pattern, but it will generally remain volatile, with attention paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. - Most metals and non - metals in the non - ferrous sector are expected to show different trends of shock, strength, or weakness. For example, copper and aluminum prices may strengthen, while zinc and lead prices may be weak in the short - term [12][14][16][17]. - Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. - Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain volatile at the bottom and in a weak state respectively [36][37]. - For energy and chemical products, different strategies are recommended according to different product fundamentals, such as short - term waiting and long - short strategies [55][56][58]. - In the agricultural product sector, different strategies are proposed for different products, such as short - selling hogs and eggs at high prices and waiting for opportunities to close positions [77][79]. Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Index Futures - Market Information: The call between Chinese and US leaders was positive. The RMB appreciated. Alibaba's Q2 FY2026 revenue increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and its cloud business grew by 34%. A Fed official called for significant rate cuts [2]. - Strategy: After recent declines, the index may stabilize in the short - term. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips as policy supports the capital market and technology growth is the main line [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: Bond futures had different changes on Tuesday. An official press conference on consumption policies will be held. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy: The economic data in October was weak, and the year - end social financing growth may remain weak. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's dovish stance and potential changes in leadership supported precious metals. The inventory of silver on the SHFE increased slightly, but the supply of silver was still tight [7][8]. - Strategy: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: Copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot premium declined. The import loss of domestic copper increased [11]. - Strategy: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is over 80%. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the downstream start - up rate is strong. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong [12]. Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices oscillated and declined. The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and the domestic inventory decreased [13]. - Strategy: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. Aluminum prices are expected to strengthen after adjustment [14]. Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices declined slightly. The import of zinc ore decreased significantly in October, and the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly [15][16]. - Strategy: The supply of zinc ore is tight due to winter stockpiling, but it is expected to loosen after stockpiling. The zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [16]. Lead - Market Information: Lead prices declined. The supply of lead ingots increased, and the export of lead - acid batteries continued to decline. The domestic and overseas inventories increased [17]. - Strategy: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to decline [18]. - Strategy: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish [18]. Tin - Market Information: Tin prices rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi was stable at a high level, and the demand in emerging fields provided support. The social inventory increased [20]. - Strategy: The supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance in the short - term. Tin prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The spot price of carbonate lithium increased, and the futures price of LC2605 rose [22]. - Strategy: The upstream expects the supply - demand situation to improve in 2026, and the mid - stream has large long - term contracts. There are differences in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. Alumina - Market Information: The price of alumina decreased. The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the domestic production capacity is over - supplied [24][26]. - Strategy: The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the over - supply pattern of alumina is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. The spot price increased, and the social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - Strategy: The spot market price increased slightly, but the demand in related fields is weak. Stainless steel prices are expected to be volatile [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded slightly. The inventory decreased slightly [28]. - Strategy: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides strong support, and the supply is affected by policies. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils was high [31]. - Strategy: The demand for steel has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. Iron Ore - Market Information: Iron ore prices rose slightly. The overseas shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [33]. - Strategy: The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile within a range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: Glass prices were stable, and the inventory increased slightly. Soda ash prices decreased, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - Strategy: The cold - repair expectation of glass production lines in December is strong, and glass prices are expected to be volatile at the bottom. Soda ash is in an over - supply situation and is expected to be weak [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: Manganese silicon prices rose slightly, and ferrosilicon prices decreased slightly. The market risk preference weakened, and the price of coking coal decreased [38][39]. - Strategy: The market risk preference has weakened, but there are expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is recommended to pay attention to the turning point of market sentiment. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is low [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose significantly. The production of industrial silicon decreased, and the production of polysilicon decreased [42][45]. - Strategy: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to short - term fluctuations. Polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile within a wide range, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices unexpectedly declined. The export of natural rubber from Thailand increased in October. The tyre - factory start - up rate was weak [48][50]. - Strategy: It is recommended to have a long - biased short - term trading strategy with a stop - loss and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - Market Information: Crude oil prices rose, and the prices of refined oil products decreased. The inventory of crude oil increased, and the inventory of refined oil products decreased [54]. - Strategy: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [55]. Methanol - Market Information: Methanol prices decreased slightly. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand changed little. The port inventory decreased [56]. - Strategy: The positive factors on the supply side are being realized, and the market is expected to bottom out. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - Market Information: Urea prices increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand improved. The enterprise inventory decreased [57][58]. - Strategy: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. It is recommended to buy on dips at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene decreased. The supply of styrene was under pressure, and the demand improved [59]. - Strategy: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short - term due to the reduction of port inventory [60]. PVC - Market Information: PVC prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The enterprise inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [61]. - Strategy: The domestic supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: Ethylene glycol prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The port inventory was stable [63]. - Strategy: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. PTA - Market Information: PTA prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand was stable. The processing fee increased [65]. - Strategy: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand may be stable. The processing fee has limited upward space, and PXN has a risk of valuation correction [66]. Para - Xylene - Market Information: PX prices decreased slightly. The load of PX was high, and the load of PTA was low. The inventory increased [68]. - Strategy: PX is in a state of slight over - supply, and there is a risk of valuation correction [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: PE prices decreased slightly. The supply was stable, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [70]. - Strategy: PE prices are expected to be low and volatile. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: PP prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [72]. - Strategy: PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [73][74]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Market Information: Hog prices continued to decline. The supply exceeded the demand, and the market demand increased slightly [76]. - Strategy: The supply of hogs is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [77]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was stable, and the demand was in a stalemate [78]. - Strategy: The egg market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: CBOT soybean prices were oscillating, and domestic soybean meal prices were stable. The global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed [80][81]. - Strategy: The import cost of soybeans has a bottom support, and soybean meal prices are expected to be oscillating [82]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The prices of domestic oils and fats decreased significantly. The export of Malaysian palm oil was weak, and the production increased [83]. - Strategy: The supply of palm oil is large, but the inventory may reverse. It is recommended to view it oscillatingly and turn to a long - biased strategy if production decreases [84]. Sugar - Market Information: Sugar prices rebounded. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic import profit window is open [85][86]. - Strategy: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price falls [87]. Cotton - Market Information: Cotton prices continued to rise. The downstream start - up rate was medium - weak, and the global cotton production increased [88]. - Strategy: The cotton market has no strong driving force in the short - term, and cotton prices are expected to be oscillating [89].