Key Points of Investment Analysis 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance, global economy and demand are weak, and new peace talks between Russia and Ukraine ease geopolitical risks, leading to a weakening trend in international oil prices [1]. - The potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is favorable for risk appetite and negative for gold, but increased expectations of Fed rate cuts make gold oscillate upwards in the short - term and may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [2]. - The domestic lithium market may face weakening fundamentals in the future, and short - term lithium prices may struggle to maintain a strong trend [4]. - The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction recently, and short - term steel prices may oscillate upwards, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [4]. - The cost of ferrosilicon remains high, but the market supply - demand is still loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [5]. - The overall supply of pigs exceeds demand, and the short - term LH2601 contract still has downward pressure [6]. - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand is limited, so the short - term 01 contract will maintain an oscillating pattern [6]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has declined, and the short - term near - month contract will run weakly [7]. - The supply - demand structure of PTA is relatively good in the short - term, but it is advisable to wait and see due to the weakening trend of crude oil [7]. - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The bond market is favorable in the medium - term but with increased operation difficulty, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased to 80%, and silver will oscillate in the short - term and remain bullish in the long - term [10]. 3. Summaries by Product Crude Oil - As of November 21, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.86 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 539,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 753,000 barrels [1]. - New peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have attracted market attention, and international oil prices are running weakly [1]. Gold - Trump's team has made great progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the conflict may end soon, which is negative for gold [2]. - Increased expectations of Fed rate cuts make gold oscillate upwards in the short - term and may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [2]. Carbonate Lithium - The SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium index price is 92,462 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton from the previous working day [4]. - The domestic lithium market may face weakening fundamentals in the future, and short - term lithium prices may struggle to maintain a strong trend [4]. Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 82.19%, down 0.62 percentage points from last week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 88.58%, down 0.22 percentage points from last week [4]. - The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction recently, and short - term steel prices may oscillate upwards, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [4]. Ferrosilicon - The national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 73,050 tons, down 10.21% or 8,310 tons from the previous period [5]. - The cost of ferrosilicon remains high, but the market supply - demand is still loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [5]. Live Pigs - On November 25, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 17.72 yuan/kg, down 1.1% from the previous day [6]. - The overall supply of pigs exceeds demand, and the short - term LH2601 contract still has downward pressure [6]. Soybean Meal - As of November 25, the domestic soybean meal spot prices remained stable [6]. - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand is limited, so the short - term 01 contract will maintain an oscillating pattern [6]. Palm Oil - From November 1 - 25, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.4% - 18.8% compared with the same period last month [7]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has declined, and the short - term near - month contract will run weakly [7]. PTA - This week, the domestic PTA output is 141.98 million tons, down 3.09 million tons from last week and up 2.88 million tons from the same period last year [7]. - The supply - demand structure of PTA is relatively good in the short - term, but it is advisable to wait and see due to the weakening trend of crude oil [7]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 57 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup glue is not available; the price of Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 16,100 yuan/ton [8]. - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - An upcoming policy briefing may affect the bond market. The bond market is favorable in the medium - term but with increased operation difficulty, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. Silver - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased to 80%, and silver will oscillate in the short - term and remain bullish in the long - term [10].
宁证期货今日早评-20251126
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-11-26 01:56