国新国证期货早报-20251126

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 25, 2025 - Stock Index Futures: A - share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.87% to 3870.02, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.53% to 12777.31, and the ChiNext Index up 1.77% to 2980.93. The trading volume reached 1812.1 billion yuan, an increase of 84.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4490.40, up 42.36 [1][2] - Coke and Coking Coal Futures: Coke weighted index closed at 1686.4, up 15.9; coking coal weighted index closed at 1127.1 yuan, down 4.5 [2][3] - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: The 2601 - month contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures rose slightly, influenced by the rebound of US sugar and stable spot prices [4] - Rubber Futures: Shanghai rubber futures fell due to factors like increased inventory at Qingdao ports and decreased seasonal demand. As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory in Qingdao was 46.89 million tons, a 3.60% increase [4][5] - Palm Oil Futures: Palm oil prices continued to decline, with the main contract P2601 closing at 8360, down 1.48% [5] - Live Pig Futures: The LH2601 main contract closed at 11415 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [5] - Soybean Meal Futures: CBOT soybeans rose slightly. In the domestic market, the M2601 main contract closed at 3013 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [5] - Shanghai Copper Futures: The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 86421 yuan/ton, up 0.65% [6] - Cotton Futures: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13615 yuan/ton at night on November 25 [8] - Iron Ore Futures: The 2601 main contract of iron ore closed up 0.51% at 794 yuan [8] - Asphalt Futures: The 2601 main contract of asphalt closed up 1.19% at 3068 yuan [8] - Log Futures: The 2601 log contract opened at 766.5, closed at 764.5, and decreased 24 lots in positions [8] - Steel Futures: rb2601 closed at 3106 yuan/ton, hc2601 closed at 3309 yuan/ton. Steel prices showed a slightly stronger trend [9] - Alumina Futures: ao2601 closed at 2727 yuan/ton. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation [9] - Shanghai Aluminum Futures: al2601 closed at 21465 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is in a state of mild supply and demand [9] 2. Core Views - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke's fourth - round price increase has been implemented, and the demand from steel mills provides short - term support. Coking coal supply may increase in the short - term but has a contraction expectation in the long - term [4] - Zhengzhou Sugar: Influenced by factors such as the rebound of US sugar and stable spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar futures showed a slight upward trend [4] - Rubber: Rising inventory and decreased demand led to a decline in rubber futures prices [4][5] - Palm Oil: Palm oil prices continued to fall, with a significant decrease in export volume [5] - Live Pig: The live pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and attention should be paid to the changes in sow inventory and the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [5] - Soybean Meal: In the international market, the situation of US soybean exports is mixed. In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and attention should be paid to South American weather and soybean imports [5][6] - Shanghai Copper: Macro factors and supply - demand relationships support copper prices, but there are also some risk factors [6] - Iron Ore: The iron ore market is in a seasonal production - reduction trend, and the price is in a volatile state [8] - Asphalt: The asphalt market has a weak supply - demand relationship, and the price is in a volatile state [8] - Log: There is no major contradiction in the log market's supply - demand relationship, and attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices and inventory changes [8][9] - Steel: Steel prices are showing a slightly stronger trend in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand is in a balanced state [9] - Alumina: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [9] - Shanghai Aluminum: The aluminum market is in a state of mild supply and demand, and the price is in a range - bound state [9]