格林大华期货早盘提示：股指-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly, leading to a sharp rise in the Nasdaq. On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and then fluctuated upwards. It is expected that the main indices of the two markets will continue to rise, and long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index for range trading. For stock index options, with the index in a wide - range fluctuation state, it is advisable to be cautious with out - of - the - money long - term call options before the end of the year [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly, and the Nasdaq soared. On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and then fluctuated upwards, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.81 trillion yuan, showing a moderate increase. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4490, up 42 points or 0.95%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2968 points, up 17 points or 0.60%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6954 points, up 85 points or 1.25%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7249 points, up 93 points or 1.31%. Among industry and theme ETFs, the top gainers were 5G ETF, Gaming ETF, etc., and the top losers were Aerospace ETF, Military Leading ETF, etc. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the top gainers were Gaming, Components, etc., and the top losers were Fishery, Military Trade Concept, etc. The net inflow of settled funds in the CSI 500 Index stock index futures was 2.5 billion yuan [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations on November 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan, increasing the volume for the 9th consecutive month [1]. - Fed officials such as Mary Daly and John Williams voiced support for a December rate cut, and the market's bet on a rate cut soared from 40% to 80% [1]. - Traders' bullish sentiment towards the offshore RMB has reached a 14 - year high, while the RMB spot fluctuated narrowly and the implied volatility decreased [1]. - BofA Merrill Lynch believes that China's actual consumption volume is not low globally. The real constraint on China's consumption performance is the extremely low price level and structural competition pressure, rather than insufficient absolute consumption volume. The real potential lies in consumption upgrading [1]. - Tesla's AI5 chip has entered the tape - out stage, and the R & D of the AI6 chip has started. The company aims to launch a new generation of AI chip design every 12 months and expects its chip shipments to exceed the sum of all other AI chips [1]. - Amazon will invest up to $50 billion to expand AI and super - computing capabilities for the US government, starting construction in 2026 [2]. - Google is promoting the deployment of TPU chips in its own data centers to large customers, aiming to expand the AI chip market. TPU chips have lower development costs and power consumption [2]. - The US President signed an executive order to launch the "Genesis Project" to transform scientific research with AI [2]. - The US government plans to invest $80 billion to restart nuclear power construction, betting on Westinghouse Electric's AP1000 large - reactor technology [2]. - Anthropic released its flagship model Claude Opus 4.5, which is significantly enhanced in automated programming and other aspects and will become the default model for all products [2]. - OpenAI released an optimized shopping search function based on the GPT - 5 - Thinking - mini model, which can be used almost unlimitedly and for free by all users before the holidays [2]. - Investment giants such as Gundlach and Dalio suggest holding physical gold as a defense, warning that debt - driven asset prices are seriously divorced from real values [2]. - AI investment contributed nearly half of the US GDP growth in the first half of the year. Analysts warn that a slump in AI stocks or a slowdown in investment may trigger a recession [2]. - The global copper processing fee has fallen below $20 per ton, hitting a 10 - year low, and the annual benchmark pricing system is facing reconstruction [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly, and the Nasdaq soared. On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and then fluctuated upwards. 16 hard - tech products were quickly approved on November 21, sending a positive signal from regulatory authorities. From January to October this year, the total inflow of overseas funds into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion, far exceeding the $11.4 billion in 2024. Foreign capital has shifted its allocation to the Chinese technology sector. Morgan Stanley expects the Chinese stock market to rise further in 2026, and NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes that China will win the AI competition [1][2][3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - After a sharp decline, the overseas market has recovered. The main indices of the two markets fluctuated at a low level on Monday, with growth - style indices being relatively strong. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to 80%. Google plans to double its AI computing power every 6 months and increase it by 1000 times in the next 4 - 5 years. Tesla's AI chips are making progress. Traders' bullish sentiment towards the offshore RMB has reached a 14 - year high. Overseas funds have been flowing into the Chinese stock market, and the Chinese technology sector has become a major destination for foreign capital. It is expected that the Chinese stock market will have a good year in 2026. The main indices of the two markets are expected to continue to rise [1][2][3]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Stock index futures directional trading: With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December rising to 80%, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and fluctuated upwards on Tuesday. It is expected that the main indices will continue to rise. Long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index for range trading [3]. - Stock index option trading: With the index in a wide - range fluctuation state, it is advisable to be cautious with out - of - the - money long - term call options before the end of the year [3].